If you submitted in October 2025 AIP may take decades. What is more likely is that the program will be reformed because it is no longer functional. Would suggest taking steps to increase your chances of immigration via an economic pathway. Learning French, increasing your English language...
They are AI projections based on volume of applicants and current allocated quotas. They aren’t set in stone but are much more realistic than what was previously posted.
Many months. This is going to be an extremely long process so I would not worry too much about timeline for things like AOR. There will be years during the process where nothing will happen yo your file. Would focus on establishing your life in Canada...
She will need to apply for a visitor record before the 6 months is up if she has not received her WP to remain in Canada legally. A visitor visa (TRV) is a travel document to enter Canada and as a US citizen she is visa exempt.
Only option is to work towards meeting LICO and then apply but you can’t get married, become common law, have a child, etc. until they have been approved. That would likely mean putting your life on hold for many years.
Did they stay past the original visit allowed? If so they can’t withdraw and need to do the medical. They can do it in their home country. Yes it will be a problem if they don’t do the medical if they want to get a visa in the future. Would recommend advising IRCC when they leave Canada.
??? You may want to use the updated processing time tool to get a better idea of how long you may need to wait.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-processing-times.html
It is an AI tool so should give you a better idea as long as the application has no special considerations although processing times are never guaranteed. It is a step in the right direction and should also minimize the volume of people contacting IRCC on a regular basis.
I am not IRB or IRCC so I can’t predict what will happen in the future. Based on past history dependents have been able to remain. Your lawyer would be the best to ask because they know the specifics of your case.
Having a Canadian child never prevented removal. It did favour H&C in the past but that seems to be somewhat changing. The government doesn’t want to reward the idea of having an anchor child. CBSA does try to coordinate with the family so any dependents with status can accompany their parents.
We’ll have to see how the governent attempts to deal with the mess they created and/or watched getting out of control. Governent certainly trying to push a bill through as fast as possible for immigration reasons and Trump.