I applied on July 5th and still nothing
Any idea why it is taking very long? When I applied the processing time was only 16 days. And I still have not received any receipt from them and the PR portal shows submitted still.
As
@armoured noted, it is NOT yet all that long, definitely NOT "
very long," for processing a PR card application.
Note that there have been many reports in this forum from PRs who saw nothing until IRCC showed that their application for a PR card was approved, never any "
receipt" or AoR, and some have reported getting a new PR card in the mail before getting any notice at all.
That Said . . . for many (not most, most being at least one more than half)
. . . processing times can range from two months to many months . . .
So far I have not seen any IRCC information, or outside IRCC reporting, that illuminates much about how long processing is for PR card applications that do not benefit from automated decision-making. It was just earlier
this year, apparently, that most PR card applications (again, most meaning at least one more than just half) began benefitting from automated decision-making. This was indicated when all of a sudden (literally) the processing time posted by IRCC went from more than two months to around two weeks.
Historically, before this year, for nearly a quarter century, IRCC's posted processing times typically ranged from two to four months, with brief periods in which it dropped to around five weeks (that's the shortest processing time I recall seeing before this year) and some when it was around six months plus a bit (which was when IRCC changed the policy to allow applications to be made up to nine months prior to when the PR card expires rather than the six month policy it had for a long period). Note, too, that for many years some PR card applications took nearly a year to be processed.
What we currently know about PR card processing times:
IRCC's posted processing times are for PR card application that are
not complex. This is, again, for "
most" PR card applications, so at least one more than half. That means that a large number of PR card applications will take longer. As I noted, there is not much information about the processing times for those applications which are not approved within around two weeks.
The WHY . . . automated decision-making . . .
As best I have figured, the current
way, way shorter processing times this year are the product of automated decision-making. I do not know whether this includes some fully automated decisions to approve applications (comparable to the process in the projects to automate decision making, regarding other types of applications, that IRCC has provided easily accessed information about), or is a process that more or less gives tentative approval which is then easily and quickly reviewed by an officer or processing agent, or some combination of both. Fully automated approvals would not take even two weeks.
My sense is it is a combination of both, some applications are fully approved with no agent or officer review, and some applications get some sort of tentative approval which an agent or officer can very quickly review and finalize approval. This would explain the difference between some of the very short times being reported anecdotally and the longer, around two weeks (a little more lately), processing times IRCC posts.
BUT only PR card applications that are NOT complex benefit from this.
The WHY . . . what applications are "complex" and do not benefit from shorter processing times resulting from automated decision making . . .
Based on what we know about how automated decision making has been applied in a number of other contexts (there is a thread here that goes into some depth about this and various related projects), there are two stages of what might be called triage screening. So far it appears that this only applies to online applications.
First stage is automated screening of online applications, determining (deciding) which applications meet the criteria for automated processing.
Second stage of triage is screening those applications that meet the criteria for automated processing and determining which are (1) not complex, (2) complex, or (3) highly complex. Only those which are not complex get automated approval (or tentative approval, however it is done for PR card applications in particular).
IRCC previously distinguished applications as either routinely processed or subject to non-routine processing. Within the last year IRCC has migrated to separating applications based on whether they are (1) not complex, (2) complex, or (3) highly complex (actual terminology might be different for PR card application processing than this terminology which is what is used in several of the projects we know more about).
It appears that what was routine processing, previously, now applies to both not-complex and complex applications. That is, just because an application is "
complex," and thus will not be processed within the processing times posted by IRCC, does not mean there is a problem or significant issue. My guess is that processing times for these applications are likely to be in a range similar to routine processing times in previous years (during which routine processing times typically ranged from two to four months).
What makes an application complex or highly complex?
We do not know what criteria is being used to identify which applications will get automated approval, or what factors or circumstances will make an application complex or highly complex. That is almost certainly considered confidential (not public) information. But of course there are some obvious factors, like discrepancies in the travel history reported by the PR in the application compared to other sources, the main one being CBSA travel history, which very likely will mean complex processing. Any factors or circumstances raising credibility concerns likewise, ranging from inconsistencies in address history indicated by information the PR has posted in open sources, such as social media, LinkedIn for example, this being a source that has often popped up in litigated cases.
Additionally, it is now highly likely that the criteria used will vary some based on automated adjustments incorporating AI components, including machine-learning.
