Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[gabriel900]

I don’t believe there will be another draw next Wednesday 24th coz the election will be on 21st.

you will never know who will be in office next week. If it’s Conservative, then the ita will be conservative!

I just hope everyone can face the reality.

good luck to all of us

What? is this confirmed? Will elections affect how the rest of the year will go?

 

[VKA]

What? is this confirmed? Will elections affect how the rest of the year will go?

Yes, it indeed will in some or the other way. Liberals have bolstered immigration system with liberalised regulations since 2015, on the contrary, conservatives have always been vocal about systematic immigration rather than huge surge of unnecessary number of immigrations, which means they will prioritise PNP’s more than FSW draws. Liberals had no cap on how many number of immigrants they plan to call each year, which you can see from 2017-18, and conservatives are against it.

 

[Dheana90]

Once again a great job Taking the current figures if the draw happens on 30th Oct, by when are the chances for 460 CRS as per your calculations?

Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:

By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)
441-450= 9,023

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.

So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)
441-450= 9,163

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.

Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.

So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)

Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.

 

[alexross]

I got a question. I'm on my PGWP and a permanent IT job in Canada but no LMIA. If my employer gives me a letter stating that I will be employed for 1 year after receiving PR, will I get points?

Yes that is my understanding. You can also refer to below link from official IRCC site. But before acting on this please consult with an immigration attorney


http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=695&top=29

 

[adao99]

Yes that is my understanding. You can also refer to below link from official IRCC site. But before acting on this please consult with an immigration attorney


http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=695&top=29

Pretty sure you still need LMIA as employer needs to prove they cant find any Canadian/Permanent Residence who could do the same job.

 

[Woqi114]

Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 23rd or 30th October draw:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)


So, by 23rdth October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,193(509 + 684(57x12days))
451-600=13,400(9,632+3,768(314x12d)
441-450= 8,953(8,833+120(10x12days))

Suppose that from the newly added 6,590 (2,822+3,768) profile from 2nd Oct to 23rd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 6,590/26=253profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466-467
3,900 minus:
-1193(601-1200)
-253 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-253 (of 475 newly added score)
-253 (of 474 newly added score)
-253 (of 473 newly added score)
-253 (of 472 newly added score)
-253 (of 471 newly added score)
-253 (of 470 newly added score)
-253 (of 469 newly added score)
-253 (of 468 newly added score)
-253 (of 467 newly added score)
-177 (of 466 newly added score)


By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)

Thank you for the detailed analysis dear

 

[alexross]

Pretty sure you still need LMIA as employer needs to prove they cant find any Canadian/Permanent Residence who could do the same job.

Under these conditions LMIA is not required. Applicants like the person who is on intra company LMIA exempt work permit will be eligible provided they have worked for a year already and get a job offer for 1 year after that please refer below

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/offer-employment/lmia-exempt.html

 

[Angel1113]

No problem dear.

Thank you for managing the internal tracker as well. I follow internal tracker's data for my estimation calculation. I know our internal tracker is not a true representation of the actual CRS pool but atleast we got the idea of it from our internal tracker that you manage

So thank you once again for your effort in keeping it up to date.

Ohh.. This internal tracker looks insane now. Earlier it was average. Must say, Great work being done by @Angel1113 .
Keep it up pal.

I wish all of these folks to get through it sooner or later. I can sense the anxiety being a part of this waiting period. Wish you all a great luck. "Patience" is the only key here. Keep yourselves motivated and spirits high.

Thank you for the kind words @NikSharma01 & @Dheana90

 

[robin6869]

on sept 27
601-1,200 579
451-600 8,946

on oct 11
601-1,200 509
451-600 9632

I think still this is a good sign, there isn't significant increase, So of draw happens next and next next Wednesday, still it will come down as we expected. Fingers crossed

 

[Dheana90]

Thank you for the detailed analysis dear

Not a problem, dear @Woqi114

 

[Wanttoleavenow]

on sept 27
601-1,200 579
451-600 8,946

on oct 11
601-1,200 509
451-600 9632

I think still this is a good sign, there isn't significant increase, So of draw happens next and next next Wednesday, still it will come down as we expected. Fingers crossed

It did increase...after a 3900 draw

 

[adao99]

Under these conditions LMIA is not required. Applicants like the person who is on intra company LMIA exempt work permit will be eligible provided they have worked for a year already and get a job offer for 1 year after that please refer below

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/offer-employment/lmia-exempt.html

OP is on PGWP which is not LMIA exempt so he will need LMIA or he can tell his employer about LMIA exempt for “Canadian interests” reasons since he's a technical worker (is IT a technical job?).

Then given his one year work experience, he will be eligible for 50 points.

*That's my understanding, not trying to argue here

 

[robin6869]

It did increase...after a 3900 draw

yeah it did, but I am saying from sept 27 to oct 11 its not increased drastically even if FST happened today. So if they are having draw for next two Wednesday score can come down. Last time they did FST in between regular draws. May be this time it is different. I am just hoping that they will still go for one FST and two regular in October. (23 and 30 October)

 

[alexross]

OP is on PGWP which is not LMIA exempt so he will need LMIA or he can tell his employer about LMIA exempt for “Canadian interests” reasons since he's a technical worker (is IT a technical job?).

Then given his one year work experience, he will be eligible for 50 points.

*That's my understanding, not trying to argue here

You are correct. I got confused as some one else also asked the same question and they were on an Intra company transfer LMIA exempt. This is a good discussion, best way to share knowledge. this is not even close to an argument

 

[aikay]

I was hopeful today with 462, but now the chances seem to be very slim for the scores to drop that low this year .