Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

[peetur]

Around 11.30 to 12.30 Canadian time. That's what I noticed in earlier draws..it was between these time

What time zone???

 

[sunsunny]

Please add me at 458, thanks.

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Sept 2, 2019 9:20 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 11): | dappy9: 1049 | yigitsk: 1025 | always1: 484 | dr.josemrod: 468 | vsfedotov: 467 | oddy4real: 467 | Vaibhav_1989: 465 | Dee1729: 463 | ACD: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 57) – | PrynkP: 460 | Woqi114: 459 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | hamhk202: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Ankoorva: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 55) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 64) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | Vibuthi: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 44)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 7) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Good luck everyone for Sept3rd/4th draw!!!!

 

[hamhk202]

I'm eagerly waiting for 11:00-12:00 UTC!

 

[nikhil_pal]

Please add me at 458, thanks.

Add me in too with CRS 449

 

[Priyanka2010]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

 

[nikhil_pal]

Is this year any chance for CRS 449 sitting in the pool since June 2019.

 

[fperk_83]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

Why always before the draw is any any maintainence notice or what

 

[rajapanesar]

My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3nd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)


Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

300 won't make a difference today, but in the long term, it'll be beneficial for <450 candidates.

 

[Priyanka2010]

Why always before the draw is any any maintainence notice or what

That's what I have heard so asking senior members if that's the trend of ircc.

 

[hamhk202]

Still no maintenance notice. Is there always a notice before a draw or there are exceptions? This is making me so nervous.

What's the maintenance notice and where we can see it?

 

[vinoth388]

My previous estimation for CRS distribution pool and cut off was for 3nd Sep. So, let's see if there will be any difference in cut off score range if I add one more day to the calculation.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 630 (42x 15days)
451-600 =10,055(5,345+4,710(314x15days))
441-450= 8,399(8,084+315(21x15days))

Suppose that from 4710 newly added profile from 20th August to 4rd Sep, 2,355(50% of 4,710) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,355/7=336 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355 (of 4,710 from 458-600 score range)
-615(of 763 from 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 455-457.
3,900 minus:
-630(601-1200)
-2,355(of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
-763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
-152(of 336 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)


Cut off score estimation for 3,900 ITAs changed from 454-456 to 455-457.

So, it means that 300 increase in ITA numbers from 3,600 to 3,900 won't make any difference in cut off score according to this calculation/estimation.

Hope your prediction comes true

 

[Dheana90]

300 won't make a difference today, but in the long term, it'll be beneficial for <450 candidates.

I agree and I didn't say it won't make any difference in the future. My stetement is only referring to the CRS cut off calculation for today's draw. I hope it's clear now

 

[Priyanka2010]

What's the maintenance notice and where we can see it?

The notice looks like this http://imgur.com/a/Y8jPW. It's not available right now.

 

[ripul]

Hi there! please add me on 483.
and I have a quick question. Since my application met FSW and CEC, I think I will get ITA under FSW. But I am not prepared for FSW. should I decline the ITA this time and waiting for another invitation? some people says set my POF to '0', but I'm working with LMIA ( FSW doesn't need POF since I work with a valid job offer.) so I don't need POF even if I apply for FSW. what should I do?

You look confused mate. How are you not prepared for FSW? You have valid job offer in Canada so there is no PoF requirement, it is easy by the way.

 

[Dheana90]

Hope your prediction comes true

Well, this calculation is only an estimation,dear.. I hope the cut of score will be lower than this but we don't know the exact CRS distribution score ranges in the pool so, can't really predict the exact cut off points.