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Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

roastedpeanuts said:
They never did a general draw after an FST Draw. I think it will be next week.

Prediction:
CRS Cutoff: 448
Number of Invitations: 3,750
Click to expand...
Everyone is going to like the increase of number of itas regardless crs going up next round.
 
13nitinsharma said:
Correction to my previous post. Prediction for the next week's draw with the current numbers. There were 1,985 applicants (317+1668) with 451 & above score on May 10th who'll get the invite for sure. Now, in another 10 days, there would be approx 200-220 applications on daily basis which will be added to this range (if draw happens next Wednesday). That means, almost 4,100 applicants above 451+ next week are ready. So, my prediction for next week is:

Draw Date: May 22
CRS - 456/457
ITA's - 3,350
Click to expand...
This makes more sense.
IRCC is way behind in processing. They can't increase ITA's even if they want. They would have to hire bunch of officers, not going to happen in an election year.

Plus, the auditor report showed that the government offices are not picking up phones. Easy target for conservatives.
 
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13nitinsharma said:
Correction to my previous post. Prediction for the next week's draw with the current numbers. There were 1,985 applicants (317+1668) with 451 & above score on May 10th who'll get the invite for sure. Now, in another 10 days, there would be approx 200-220 applications on daily basis which will be added to this range (if draw happens next Wednesday). That means, almost 4,100 applicants above 451+ next week are ready. So, my prediction for next week is:

Draw Date: May 22
CRS - 456/457
ITA's - 3,350
Click to expand...

There can be back-to-back draws next week and the one after. If that happens, regardless of next draw, the one after could be 450/451.

By the way, I have a hunch that cut-off may never go below 450 until elections. Look at the speed of 451+ applications - it's more than 250 per day. At this speed, steady state cut-off would be 453 @ 3350 and 451 @ 3500.
 
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mamuso said:
Some hard facts and moment of truth -
1. 99% chances CRS will be more than 450 for next two draws (As per experts analysis with real published data)
2. My birthday on 10th July - 4 possible predicted draws left for me to make it.

Conclusion - Chances of getting ITA before birthday are less than 1% :(
Plan B - Going solo with CRS 464 after next 2 draws, get PR and sponsor wife.
Now good people of this forum, please give me your honest opinions about my plan B.
Click to expand...

How much is ur CRS with wife?
 
mamuso said:
Some hard facts and moment of truth -
1. 99% chances CRS will be more than 450 for next two draws (As per experts analysis with real published data)
2. My birthday on 10th July - 4 possible predicted draws left for me to make it.

Conclusion - Chances of getting ITA before birthday are less than 1% :(
Plan B - Going solo with CRS 464 after next 2 draws, get PR and sponsor wife.
Now good people of this forum, please give me your honest opinions about my plan B.
Click to expand...
i don't understand this birthday scenario ever? my birthday is june 4. so i draw happens in may and i have crs according tod raw then i won't get ITA until my birthday u mean?
 
SeniorStakes said:
There can be back-to-back draws next week and the one after. If that happens, regardless of next draw, the one after could be 450/451.

By the way, I have a hunch that cut-off may never go below 450 until elections. Look at the speed of 451+ applications - it's more than 250 per day. At this speed, steady state cut-off would be 453 @ 3350 and 451 @ 3500.
Click to expand...
Let’s see. This wait is like never ending and no idea when this will be over.
 
mamuso said:
5 pts are reduced after your birth day. If you get ITA even 1 day before birthday, profile is freezed and your are good to go.
Click to expand...
oh . solo i have 480. But this is extent. now with spouse i have 455 so my DOB is june 4/1993 .. will it go down to 450 ? my age will be 26 on this june which is same points i think
 
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