Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

[NOMAD2017]

Guys!! I am saying goodbye to this group till I get an ITA!! I thoroughly enjoyed being a part of this group for a month or so and would like to thank all the logical and humourous brains over here..special thanks to @special3220 @AlliBatista @abhishek_89 @mary99 @NOMAD2017 and all others who actively participated here!! Bye!! Wish you all, best of luck!

You will be missed..

 

[NOMAD2017]

Morning all,

Did something significant happen in Canada? I'm not sure but think something happened for them to decide not to draw yesterday... I hope this is the case, but if not....

I had this feeling in the beginning of the year.... that since they DONT have yearly targets anymore (implementation of the 3 year plan) that they would play UNFAIR and withhold draws to make sure it doesn't dip under 440...

Think about it for a second.... we started with lower scores than last year...every time it was GOING to dip under 440 they "withhold" a draw and it increases the draw candidates above 440.... I have noticed this shift and is the second time this happened this year...last time it dumped back to I think 456 before coming down...

If this happens a 3rd time...I think well have our answer !

I do hope this is not the case but lest see what develops.... fingers crossed for you all !

I have been a big advocate of this theory since I joined ROH, and got slammed for it multiple times

 

[special3220]

I have been a big advocate of this theory since I joined ROH, and got slammed for it multiple times

Don't understand why you guys trying to produce a theory based on just one incidence. I mean 3 weeks gap happened only twice this year. First time it happened the cut off of the preceeding draw was 442, so even with normal bi weekly draw the cut off would have been above 440 for sure.
The second time it happened was Last week when there was 80% chance that the cut off would have been below 440. So if you want to theorise just based on this then you are free to do so but the ground you are basing this is very thin.

Now I was one of the guy who really wanted a draw this week as I was at 439. As it is CIC and they do draws based on many factors which are not officially disclosed so we cannot say for sure. However, if you ask me I would say the reason for that was the draw that happened in 30th May. Yes we saw such draw last year and they didn't affect FSW draws but this year CIC didn't do any single back to back and I don't think that they will. For me that is why no draw happened in June 6.

 

[NOMAD2017]

Don't understand why you guys trying to produce a theory based on just one incidence. I mean 3 weeks gap happened only twice this year. First time it happened the cut off of the preceeding draw was 442, so even with normal bi weekly draw the cut off would have been above 440 for sure.
The second time it happened was Last week when there was 80% chance that the cut off would have been below 440. So if you want to theorise just based on this then you are free to do so but the ground you are basing this is very thin.

Now I was one of the guy who really wanted a draw this week as I was at 439. As it is CIC and they do draws based on many factors which are not officially disclosed so we cannot say for sure. However, if you ask me I would say the reason for that was the draw that happened in 30th May. Yes we saw such draw last year and they didn't affect FSW draws but this year CIC didn't do any single back to back and I don't think that they will. For me that is why no draw happened in June 6.

It happened twice now. And yes, I started believing in this theory after the first time. To each his own.
How do you know the cut-off would have been above 440, had IRCC done the usual bi-weekly draw the first time? 442 does not assure that the next cut-off would be above 440. In my opinion, they didn't have enough candidates above 440 even back then, hence they delayed the draw and the cut-off rose to 456. The same thing happened this time around. My score is 439, I am a very realistic person and I don't think I have a chance at least in this quarter. I will rather try to increase my points than to wait for the score to come down. I already wasted 1.5 months on ROH thread, waiting for ITA in vain. I should have registered for IELTS the moment I lost my previous ITA.

I will pray for those who have done their best and cannot improve the score any further.

 

[NOMAD2017]

Someone rightly said in one of the posts above, that predicting the cut-off this year is just like predicting a lottery number. We better discuss the ways to improve our score, and getting nominated by a province. The clock is ticking for those of us, who are in their 30s.

 

[sunboy129]

It happened twice now. And yes, I started believing in this theory after the first time. To each his own.
How do you know the cut-off would have been above 440, had IRCC done the usual bi-weekly draw the first time? 442 does not assure that the next cut-off would be above 440. In my opinion, they didn't have enough candidates above 440 even back then, hence they delayed the draw and the cut-off rose to 456. The same thing happened this time around. My score is 439, I am a very realistic person and I don't think I have a chance at least in this quarter. I will rather try to increase my points than to wait for the score to come down. I already wasted 1.5 months on ROH thread, waiting for ITA in vain. I should have registered for IELTS the moment I lost my previous ITA.

I will pray for those who have done their best and cannot improve the score any further.

Completely agree with you. I am at 439 too and personally believe that should the CRS to drop below 440 CIC will use the same trick in future (conducting draws in 3 or even 4 weeks instead of biweekly). Now I might have to dedicate my Mcat prep time to instead learn French as that's the only option I have left to increase my CRS. Sucks but the likely reality in my opinion.

 

[special3220]

It happened twice now. And yes, I started believing in this theory after the first time. To each his own.
How do you know the cut-off would have been above 440, had IRCC done the usual bi-weekly draw the first time? 442 does not assure that the next cut-off would be above 440. In my opinion, they didn't have enough candidates above 440 even back then, hence they delayed the draw and the cut-off rose to 456. The same thing happened this time around. My score is 439, I am a very realistic person and I don't think I have a chance at least in this quarter. I will rather try to increase my points than to wait for the score to come down. I already wasted 1.5 months on ROH thread, waiting for ITA in vain. I should have registered for IELTS the moment I lost my previous ITA.

I will pray for those who have done their best and cannot improve the score any further.

83rd and a 84th both had 442 cut off. 441 and 440 at that time were not touched for a long time so it was the most likely scenerio that cut off would have been above 440. Moreover the draw that happened immediately after resulted in 456 score. So the no of people entering above 440 every was really high at that time. So even if bi weekly draw had happened that time score would have been 442 plus.

But anyway no point in talking about these things. We should all try to improve our score. But here since it is Ray of Hope you should not publish
stupid theories which don't have any strong foundation. CIC setting something like not going down below 440 is one of them.

 

[NOMAD2017]

83rd and a 84th both had 442 cut off. 441 and 440 at that time were not touched for a long time so it was the most likely scenerio that cut off would have been above 440. Moreover the draw that happened immediately after resulted in 456 score. So the no of people entering above 440 every was really high at that time. So even if bi weekly draw had happened that time score would have been 442 plus.

But anyway no point in talking about these things. We should all try to improve our score. But here since it is Ray of Hope you should not publish
stupid theories which don't have any strong foundation. CIC setting something like not going down below 440 is one of them.

lol, let the time decide about the stupidity of this theory. I also advice everyone not to give false hope to others and waste their time. What happened to me should not happen to others. I delayed my IELTS plans for more than a month mainly because of this thread. I regret that now.

 

[NOMAD2017]

83rd and a 84th both had 442 cut off. 441 and 440 at that time were not touched for a long time so it was the most likely scenerio that cut off would have been above 440. Moreover the draw that happened immediately after resulted in 456 score. So the no of people entering above 440 every was really high at that time. So even if bi weekly draw had happened that time score would have been 442 plus.

But anyway no point in talking about these things. We should all try to improve our score. But here since it is Ray of Hope you should not publish
stupid theories which don't have any strong foundation. CIC setting something like not going down below 440 is one of them.

secondly, unless you have the daily data, you can't tell the points distribution for sure. All our analysis are based on average data. Useless debate.

 

[NOMAD2017]

83rd and a 84th both had 442 cut off. 441 and 440 at that time were not touched for a long time so it was the most likely scenerio that cut off would have been above 440. Moreover the draw that happened immediately after resulted in 456 score. So the no of people entering above 440 every was really high at that time. So even if bi weekly draw had happened that time score would have been 442 plus.

But anyway no point in talking about these things. We should all try to improve our score. But here since it is Ray of Hope you should not publish
stupid theories which don't have any strong foundation. CIC setting something like not going down below 440 is one of them.

The real ROH lies in improving our scores. Again, as I said, to each his own. I advocate that theory, You don't. But I never tell anyone that their theory is stupid. Kindly, let there be freedom of speech. I have had enough of this kind of comments when I initially tried to communicate my point of view a month ago. We should be nice to each other, and correct others politely when we think they are wrong. It's a frustrating time for most of us, but we should respect each other's opinions.

 

[NOMAD2017]

83rd and a 84th both had 442 cut off. 441 and 440 at that time were not touched for a long time so it was the most likely scenerio that cut off would have been above 440. Moreover the draw that happened immediately after resulted in 456 score. So the no of people entering above 440 every was really high at that time. So even if bi weekly draw had happened that time score would have been 442 plus.

But anyway no point in talking about these things. We should all try to improve our score. But here since it is Ray of Hope you should not publish
stupid theories which don't have any strong foundation. CIC setting something like not going down below 440 is one of them.

And yes, I agree that too many people were entering the pool at that time. You might be right here. However, I still don't want to wait for the cut-off to go below 440 in next few months. I can't afford that, as the delay will cost me a lot. We have got our medical done, and also paid a good amount to an agent in order to get the PCCs. Better improve the score and receive ITA sooner than later.

 

[tristonz]

Whats the total number of years of your work experience now ?

it's 3y 6m now

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Before you guys start pushing your theories about, please note that There was a provincial election for ontario on the 6th of june.
maybe this was the main reason why there was no draw and not the fact that IRCC doesn't want scores less than 440 or not enough candidate in the pool theory you guys are broadcasting.
But what is paramount is that people should seek ways to improve their CRS scores..

 

[Mayur_M]

Before you guys start pushing your theories about, please note that There was a provincial election for ontario on the 6th of june.
maybe this was the main reason why there was no draw and not the fact that IRCC doesn't want scores less than 440 or not enough candidate in the pool theory you guys are broadcasting.
But what is paramount is that people should seek ways to improve their CRS scores..

Instead of being at Mercy of ircc to drop crs or do back to back draws. Invest in yourself retake IELTS or whatever it takes to improve your crs.

 

[Micky345]

My prediction for upcoming draw - 451 considering two ielts results released and 3 weeks gap for draw.