Ray of Hope - 91st Draw

[SumH12]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

 

[SumH12]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

I am sorry, the format resulted misaligned when I posted it

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

so is it safe to conclude that d next crs score would be in the range of 438-440 for d nxt round of invitation or to be more exact 439 +/- 1 ? Judging from ur figures above With the trend of decreasing number of candidates with 440+ scores.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

Waoh this is some really useful insight you have given us. So much info here

 

[SumH12]

so is it safe to conclude that d next crs score would be in the range of 438-440 for d nxt round of invitation or to be more exact 439 +/- 1 ? Judging from ur figures above With the trend of decreasing number of candidates with 440+ scores.

That’s what I interpret also from these numbers. And if the quota increases to 3,750 or 4,000, it could bring really good news for us in the 430s.
There is a 5-7 days gap between draw day and pool day, but the increase during gap was smaller last time. Also, the general increase of the pool is somewhat remaining between 0.5 and close to 1%.

 

[Fhussain]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

Just to clarify a point... I think u hv not considered gap of pool date and draw date in variation calculation..

 

[SumH12]

Just to clarify a point... I think u hv not considered gap of pool date and draw date in variation calculation..

That’s correct. The first variation (3rd column) is calculate with data from date2- date 1 of general pool published. The other % (last column) represents specifically the variation of 441+ candidates to the date of the pool published (5-7 days before the draw).

I couldn’t calculate the variation as of the day of the draw because the pool published is never showed to that date. So, there is no specific data. But still, I thought that this could help a little to see what happens month to month.

 

[Fhussain]

That’s correct. The first variation (3rd column) is calculate with data from date2- date 1 of general pool published. The other % (last column) represents specifically the variation of 441+ candidates to the date of the pool published (5-7 days before the draw).

I couldn’t calculate the variation as of the day of the draw because the pool published is never showed to that date. So, there is no specific data. But still, I thought that this could help a little to see what happens month to month.

Ok.. just to make it more meaningful.. just take percentage of days gap over 7 days.. so that it will give a fair idea of decrease or increase in terms of numbers compared to variation in days..
But overall.. good analysis..

 

[lightning_crashes]

Hi,
I would like to share a data summary:

Pool Date Pool Total Variation Draw Date Draw CRS ITAs Quota Draw/Pool gap (days) Candidates with CRS 441+ (as if by pool) Variation
May 16 84,045 0.5% May 23 440 3500 7 1965 -15.0%
May 4 83,646 1.2% May 09 441 3500 5 2313 -8.3%
April 19 82,659 1.0% April 25 441 3500 6 2521 -14.1%
April 4 81,812 1.6% April 11 444 3500 7 2935 -6.4%
March 20 80,488 0.5% March 26 446 3000 6 3135 -20.8%
March 8 80,091 4.6% March 14 456 3000 6 3959 79.1%
Feb 15 76,579 1.8% Feb 21 442 3000 6 2210 8.8%
Feb 1 75,227 2.6% Feb 7 442 3000 6 2031 -16.0%

Something really strange happened in March with that huge spike of ppl 441+. After that it's going down and down. Hopefully another spike doesn't come otherwise it will take many draws to clear those guys!

Really good gathering of data. Thanks for that.

 

[tjhunt]

Exactly the same case with me, although it was way back in Feb when I made the profile with CLB 9 and missed 10 by that dreaded 0.5 band in writing. I always thought it would bite me later if I missed the ITA at 441 which I could have gotten with a CLB 10. Anyways, time went by and the scores swung from 442 to 456 and then finally steadied at 441. It seemed back in Feb'18 that 438 would be achievable in a month before everything went sour. Long story short, I opted for acceptance of NOI from OINP to be on the safe side and now waiting for a nomination. I am anticipating the score to hit 438 by end June of Mid July which will be the time I am expecting the nomination from OINP as well.

Since you don't have the option of OINP you may wanna opt for re-appearance in IELTS to boost your score to the Max i.e. CLB 10. Re-checking won't be a wise choice as IELTS seldom increase the score and it will result in time loss as well. This would increase your chances in case of a tie-break at 440 later, else you can wait out for 2 more months and bet on the scores to slip.

In the end there is always a calculate risk in whatever way you choose. For me, opting for a retry at IELTS might have increased my score to CLB 10 but I would have missed my 45 days NOI window and cursed myself for the next 2.5 months for doing so. On the other hand I would have gotten an ITA this draw and saved $1500 - 238 = $1262

Hey I understand how you felt, I spoke with the IELTS center and seems like EOR isn't an option since they count the exam date and not when you get the results. Which means my chance of getting an EOR has passed, oh well I guess I can wait and see what comes ahead. Are they sending out a NOIs soon?

 

[alfred0]

Something really strange happened in March with that huge spike of ppl 441+. After that it's going down and down. Hopefully another spike doesn't come otherwise it will take many draws to clear those guys!

Really good gathering of data. Thanks for that.

The number of candidates accumulated crazily because the gap between draw 84(Feb 21) and 85(Mar 14) was 3 weeks

 

[naveenCEC]

Hi,
Is it mandatory to add the work contract? Could be ok only to present a detailed experience letter with tax annual declarations?

Hi, detailed experience letter is fine. I just put experience letter, tax assessment and pay stubs for mine.

 

[NOMAD2017]

Sorry @NOMAD2017 as per this post no chance to increase your CRS

lol I am living my happily ever after anyways Was just trying to figure out a way to improve points for the bachelors on the thread

 

[NOMAD2017]

Hmmm.... point but I was thinking to collect all documents from home country. Experience letters, bank statements n PCC n then file...

Yeah, apply for PCC on the last day but ask someone else to collect it on your behalf once you have left the country.

 

[NOMAD2017]

Glad to know that.
Any prediction about OINP next draw for HCP. It's been 2 months, no draw. Im at 435 with NOC 2174 (Computer Programmer)

I am waiting for it as well. No invitations in HCP stream since March 26, 2018.