Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

[d_vandana]

429 have good chance of getting ITA late this year or when 2018 plan kicks in , even if they keep same quota as 2017 plan (300K) , there is a chance that it will go to the same lowest CRS we seen in April-May, also next year.. so have high hopes , it may not be soon but have to wait till early next year.. again nobody knows for sure.. if they increase number of ITA's , points had dropped by 10 points from previous draw..

Thanks a lot for the reply...I'm eagerly awaiting...all the best to you too..

 

[JinandMango]

How likely is it to hit 428 in the next draw?

 

[Brandon Stark]

Next Year targets will be available in March and next year implementation plans start from April. The targets will be relatively same however more streams will be included and newly added streams will be improved. In addition, more money is planned to be spent on Technology and making processes smoother and faster. More applications will be received through EE but total economic immigrants will not be changed much.

Now coming to the current situation. I have already presented current data much time in this forum which clearly shows that they are well above their targets and therefore the size of ITA's are expected to stay below 3,000.

In regards to rejections, it is the responsibility of Candidates to meet the IRCC requirements. I have also summarised most common reasons for rejections for applicants to read before applying. 99% of applicants who are rejected have made a mistake that is part of this report.
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/post-e-apr-process-and-common-reasons-for-rejection.510587/

The main target for IRCC at the moment is to complete backlogs before April when the 2018-19 plan is implemented and process applications faster. As the Nomination Quota is ending soon it may help score getting down between November-January, however, competition is expected to stay between candidates above 420.

I hope this will help.

I think you are partially right. I talked to my immigration lawyer yesterday and he said the plans will be unveiled before Nov 1,2017 but will be implemented in April of next year. He also said there will be a lot of additional streams to accommodate IT candidates as they want to build a so called northern silicon Valley in Canada. You have done a good amount of research and provided great detail. Thank you for responding. Keep posting

 

[Brandon Stark]

How likely is it to hit 428 in the next draw?

Very slim in the next draw. I think everyone above 425 has a good chance of getting an ITA in Nov-dec 2017. My lawyer said their is good possibility of getting 3 draws in November. He talked to a CIC insider but nothing is concrete. Cic improvises in every draw so their is no way of being sure.

 

[ishant27]

But it is always a possibility that they have work experience of their home country and as soon as they graduate they are granted the points for course completion in Canada which is at least 50 points..

It's not at least 50 points. It's MAX 30 points for Canadian Education
You can always look at official data at http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/express-entry/grid-crs.asp
Don't assume and provide wrong information.

 

[Brandon Stark]

As excited as I am to get an ITA and eventually the PR card, the rise of nationalism in Canada is slightly worrying to me. If Trudeau keeps on bringing unvetted refugees from Syria at the rate he is doing until the next election in 2019, we will see a huge rise in support for the conservative party which is against large scale immigration like one intended by the liberals to boost Canada's population. Quebec might even vote for independence like one is happening Catalonia(spain). Their is also a huge rise is national socialist and white nationalist groups in Canada which may snowball into a full scale political party. These are troubled times we live in and if the right rises again, it will be bad news for all of us non white immigrants. The cold winds are rising, Winter is coming.

 

[Rawee]

A bit off topic but request your thoughts on the below query:

My organisation has denied me to provide any reference letter and even any denial mail for the same. However I have managed to obtain letter of reference from one of my senior colleagues but from a different department. My question is whether CIC calls the employer to check about the person who has given the reference because I do not want his job to be in trouble. I am submitting his visiting card and ID copy along with the letter.

Also I have managed to obtain a generic employment confirmation letter from my current employer which is issued to all employees for Visa purposes which also I am planning to submit to CIC.

In need of opinions on the above.

Thanks.

I am also facing the same situation as yours to obtain roles and duties on a letter head.

Please let me know how you are planning to tackle this situation.

 

[wickerman]

I am also facing the same situation as yours to obtain roles and duties on a letter head.

Please let me know how you are planning to tackle this situation.

Get a letter on plain paper from either your manager or your colleagues. They could be working in the organization or moved on, it doesnt matter.

I had the same issue, so I am doing the following:

- Plain paper letter from the previous manager (he is now in another organization)
- My offer letter
- Salary increment letters
- Paystubs (whatever I have)
- My experience letter
- My relieving letter
- My manager's experience letter
- If you have your manager's visiting card, then attach that as well.
- A curated list of emails denying me the letter in the requested format. (Its okay if you dont have this, you can just attach any of the above)

 

[Rawee]

Get a letter on plain paper from either your manager or your colleagues. They could be working in the organization or moved on, it doesnt matter.

I had the same issue, so I am doing the following:

- Plain paper letter from the previous manager (he is now in another organization)
- My offer letter
- Salary increment letters
- Paystubs (whatever I have)
- My experience letter
- My relieving letter
- My manager's experience letter
- If you have your manager's visiting card, then attach that as well.
- A curated list of emails denying me the letter in the requested format. (Its okay if you dont have this, you can just attach any of the above)

Thank you for detailed list, have you received ITA?

 

[abhishek_89]

Dear Abhishek,

I have been closely following up your predictions.
I am at 429 points. Please tell me if there is any chance as i have suspended so many career plans for immigration.
I am literally standing on PAUSE button.
Now i scared as i am loosing my precious time here in India...
But immigration is my goal which will change me and my daughter's future.
Please reply..Thanking in advance..

Vandana

A 1-week gap draw is the need of the hour. If it happens, the cut off should come down which will help your cause. I am expecting it to happen on Nov 8th but no guarantee.
Also, wait for the 2018 targets, which would give a clear picture of the future draws.

 

[abhishek_89]

We are not interested to add my name for the time

Yes, she can apply alone for PR. In any case, PCC should be obtained before submission of the PR application for both of you.

Who needs a police certificate?
In general, you and all the people in your family who are 18 or older need to get a police certificate.

You may need a police certificate from any country or territory that you have spent six months or more since the age of 18.

For example: if you visited, worked or lived in a country for two months, left for a few years, then returned for four months, that counts as spending six months there. In this case, you would need a certificate.

If you need a police certificate from a country or territory and:

• are currently living there, or received the police certificate before leaving, the police certificate must be issued within six months before you apply.
• have lived there in the past, the police certificate must be issued after you last lived in that country or territory.

 

[wickerman]

Thank you for detailed list, have you received ITA?

Yes, I did on October 4th.

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi,
My husband and I have been following Ray of Hope for some time now. We observed that your predictions are pretty much accurate and so we eagerly wait for your predictions each time before the draw time . I must say this thread is what keeps our hope alive.

I have one question though do you think the cut off score will drop below 426 this year. We started the process in 2015, got through the Quebec Skilled worker program in August 2016 but no news from there side till date. All the payments made but no news to start the submission of documents. Our lawyer said God only knows when they will even start the process. She also said that federal is the only way out for us.

Our CRS is 426 and will remain so till May 2018. Do let me know if CRS cut off score will fall below 426 this year as per your analysis.

If there are few 1-week gap draws, then yes cut off will go below 426. But right now, I am predicting only a single 1-week gap draw till December 2017. If that happens, you may need to wait and see the trends next year based on the 2018 target. If the targets for 2018 are more than this year, you should expect the CRS cut off to reach below 426 early next year as they would increase the number of ITAs being issued per draw.

 

[Stoick]

Thank you

Hello Harry, which CPC office did you sent your passport to? I have sent mine to Ottawa today. But I have a scheduled trip on 6th Nov. Not sure whether i will get it back before that.

 

[shersingh]

Why are we expecting a 1-week draws on Nov 1 and Nov 8? any reasoning or just it feels good to think positive