Don't be. These things take time. I've been in the pool since last 8 months. Good luck!
Ray of Hope 62nd Draw
- Thread starter arunroy007
- Start date
Don't be. These things take time. I've been in the pool since last 8 months. Good luck!
I have a theory here. Just some logical speculations based on the current data available.
As of April 28 we can see that there are around 2003 applicants between 411-420 and some 453 between 421-430.
By May 04 I guess the 411-420 range has some 3000 applicants and assuming there are 200 applicants between 421-422 range.
Now since last draw was at 423, I suppose this must have taken out everybody out of the pool except < 423 applicants.
So basically we have some 3200 candidates from 411 to 422 in the EE pool by May 4.
Now lets say since then, 2000+ more applicants joined the 411 to 422 range and >2.2k joined the 423-1200 range..with PNP and job offers and what not. Considering in Apr 28 we had almost same count in this range.
So basically we have around 5500 candidates in the 411-422 range & 2.2k in the 423+ range.
Assuming CIC will invite more than 2.5k candidates on May 17, I am hoping the cut off will drop and will reach around 417-418 not below that.
If they call around 2.5k candidates, then chances are the cut off will be 420-421.
If they call less than 2k candidates, then cut off is definitely going to increase and will be in the 427+ range.
Now it all boils down to how much quota they have actually left (adding the rejection in the already sent ITA) and how they want to ration it.
If someone can confirm how many months are left for 2017, that would be great.
We can predict the ITA count in a much finer way and can predict the cut off of the coming draws.
As of April 28 we can see that there are around 2003 applicants between 411-420 and some 453 between 421-430.
By May 04 I guess the 411-420 range has some 3000 applicants and assuming there are 200 applicants between 421-422 range.
Now since last draw was at 423, I suppose this must have taken out everybody out of the pool except < 423 applicants.
So basically we have some 3200 candidates from 411 to 422 in the EE pool by May 4.
Now lets say since then, 2000+ more applicants joined the 411 to 422 range and >2.2k joined the 423-1200 range..with PNP and job offers and what not. Considering in Apr 28 we had almost same count in this range.
So basically we have around 5500 candidates in the 411-422 range & 2.2k in the 423+ range.
Assuming CIC will invite more than 2.5k candidates on May 17, I am hoping the cut off will drop and will reach around 417-418 not below that.
If they call around 2.5k candidates, then chances are the cut off will be 420-421.
If they call less than 2k candidates, then cut off is definitely going to increase and will be in the 427+ range.
Now it all boils down to how much quota they have actually left (adding the rejection in the already sent ITA) and how they want to ration it.
If someone can confirm how many months are left for 2017, that would be great.
We can predict the ITA count in a much finer way and can predict the cut off of the coming draws.
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Chiragappa
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We don't know that for sure
In the past there have been draws on Friday and Saturday as well
Chiragappa
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Well can be optimistic but its not happening... On next wednesday and the 3rd draw of the month would happen on 31st may... This month has 5 wednesdays... Generally when the draw happens. See thats what I see from here on. Hopefully it will come down to 405 in next 2 draws. Then we may have a little upside as many of us will get the 6th june additional points.
Actually, the time of the draw that took place on the 12th of April was 17:24:01 UTC... So a draw is still possible today (now it is 16:45 UTC), although a little unlikely.
I've never seen more than 3 draws a month. I think there will be 2 more draws this month, but with 2 week intervals. The only chance of a back to back i see is on first week of june (maybe monday or tuesday) right before new changes take effect. Last time they implemented a change, they didnt have a draw in like 4 weeks. So they might do a draw on 1st week of june.
ivancabrer
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Any particular reasons why you have that feeling?
Not that I wouldn't love it
, but even if I'm very positive, I think they'll do it next week.Thank you for saying that. We are worried about if we wouldn't get the invitation by June 6th, then the chance for next following months would even less.
True that. Hope we get happily surprised.Very unlikely but CIC is full of surprises
Anyway, I think we'll have to think for one more week now.