First, hello! I'm sure my response will seem a little tl;dr but hopefully there will be some insights that will help you make your decisions on how to proceed. I'm by no means an expert, but I'm happy to share what I've learned from my own situation.
Storytime: I'm from the US myself, and I was about your age, maybe a little younger, when my husband first proposed to me and started talking about how to get me up to Montreal (which is where he was born and raised, and where we live now ^^). At that time (which was like... idk 2011 or 2012?) I declined his proposal because I knew neither of us had the financial means to make the immigration happen and we were both teenagers fresh out of high school. It took 12 years before we had enough ducks in a row to start the immigration process in 2023 -- which, since we're in Quebec, the entire process takes 2-3x as long as any other province. We've waited 2 years already just for PR and still haven't received our approval yet. And that's not even mentioning the Quebec province's specific desire for prioritizing French-speaking immigrants. For us, it's been an uphill battle through poverty the whole way, and the last couple of years have been very mentally, emotionally, and financially challenging.
Timeline: Keep in mind that immigration processing operates on the IRCC's timeline (and in Quebec, the MIFI's timeline, too), not yours. From what you've shared, realistically, (with my limited knowledge) I can't think of an immigration solution that is going to get you out of the US in less than a year -- and don't forget, you also need to be able to meet the financial requirements for processing fees, admin fees, exam fees, etc. for the pathway that you apply to, in addition to the pathway's requirements (which usually includes a financial component as well).
Since you are currently still attending high school, I am making the assumption that you may not have much in your savings yet for this kind of endeavor (but if I'm wrong about that, kudos!! I certainly wasn't that prepared when I was your age lol), and if that assumption is correct, then you will need time to work up to having these fees and financials available. There's also the time it will take to gather your documentations and paperwork for your application, then the application processing time itself after you've applied.
I know you said you're concerned about the way the current administration in the US is treating trans persons, but I suspect by the time that your application would be fully processed, the current administration will flip back over to a liberal administration (as that has been the trend for the last few decades) -- which typically is much more supportive of trans individuals (and tbh, being trans is something that can slow down your immigration approval timeline, too, since there's additional verifications at the medical level to confirm your identity, medication history, and physical/mental health -- that happened to one of my friends).
Potential Pathways: I think you have several factors that are going to make immigrating to Canada a challenge, but that doesn't mean it can't be done, just that it might not end up happening the way you might have imagined. I would personally take any urgency out of the equation and focus-up on gathering your finances. Immigration is expensive lol. And I would personally recommend getting an immigration lawyer to help you. Immigration lawyers (although costly) can really come in handy with their consultations and experience when it comes to finding the best pathway for you -- especially if you have limiting factors due to age, job experience, health stuff, etc. Sometimes they can help you with interview prep and expedite certain submissions, too.
Asylum-seeking or refugee pathways will not be possible as transgender persecution in the US isn't currently recognized at an official level.
Family Class via Spousal/common-law sponsorship is a possibility, BUT only if the relationship is
genuine. IF you have a partner who is a Canadian PR or a Canadian citizen, they can sponsor your immigration to Canada. This is typically looked at as one of the slower pathways, and this is the one that my husband and I went with for Inland Quebec. If you find yourself in the situation where this pathway makes sense for you, I definitely recommend picking a different province to move to and submit your application to.
Student Visa/Study Permit temporary but might be a possibility, but you have to really prove you have the ability to financially support yourself in Canada. As well, the government is issuing less and less of these because the system was being abused. I am not sure what the requirements are as far as GPA or other metrics. I refer back to the suggestion of a consultation with an immigration lawyer for specifics and seeing if it's the right option for your situation.
C
anadian Experience Class I don't know enough about this one, but it might be worth looking into a bit more. From my understanding it's all about experiencing Canada as a culture wholistically and giving you opportunities to integrate with the society as a learning pathway. I believe this is temporary, but every day you spend in Canada on a temporary basis (work permit, visa, visitor) counts as half a day toward your needed "day requirement inside Canada" in order to eventually obtain citizenship in the long-term -- and sometimes toward PR for certain pathways, as I mentioned before.
Provincial Nominee Program is a really good option if you have (or eventually obtain) technical skills/certifications. Canada wants more populations to disperse to other areas of the country and not just the major cities. Places like New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have the ability to nominate a foreign candidate to come move to the province just because that candidate has an interest. So when these programs are available, it's worth it to see if you're eligible.
Final Thoughts: Potentially consider investing in your education by getting a technical certification and then seeking jobs that will allow you to work from Canada as that might open up opportunities for you to 1. make better money, and 2. live/work from within Canada. International trucking is another good one for cross-border work without much experience and makes good money to help with your future goals. Keep an eye out for changes to the immigration pathways, too. Sometimes paths open up that allow persons who have been temporarily residing in the country with a work permit for lengthy periods of time to apply for PR.
As a US citizen, you can travel to Canada with just your passport and stay inside the country for up to 6 months at a time, no additional visa required. So if you need to get out of the US to go make connections and start looking for work sponsors, you can always come to Canada as a Visitor, too, to get yourself out of the US asap -- just make sure you don't work from inside Canada without a permit and make sure that if you're a Visitor, you have enough funds in your bank account to support the duration of your visit. You can talk with a border agent at any land port of entry about getting a Visitor Record, too, they should be able to grant you one that will last for up to a year -- but you need to give them a good reason for why they should allow you an extended visit.
In the short-term, I'm not sure which state you're in currently, but moving to another state (something I was able to do from Ohio to Texas at one point with a $1500 moving truck from Budget, $100 for gas, and $65 in my pocket for food -- mind, that was in 2019) might be a good idea to start with, too, so that -- in the interim -- you are living/working stateside in a town or area that will better support your needs as a trans individual (such as access to HRT).
I know you've already been doing several months-worth of research prior to posting here, but I hope some of this information is useful to you. I'm most familiar with the Family Class Spousal process since that's the immigration stream I applied to, but my DMs are always open if you have any questions
