Hi, everyone! I had a bit of downtime today between gigs and did some data crunching on the spreadsheet (Exported to Excel for ease-of-manipulation). My working hypothesis was that Montrealers were faring substantially worse than other cities/processing centres when it came to applicants waiting to get their Oath invitations. To investigate this, I created a chart, which I have dumped below, for your perusal. I have counted the "Mercedes++" user in the October application, as they were not accounted for (yet) in the spreadsheet.
Disclaimer: I am NOT a data scientist, nor do I claim to be. I didn't even sleep at a Holiday Inn last night. Constructive feedback is always welcome, but please do keep this in mind.
End results:
As you can see, 52% (53%, if you're rounding up) of all Montreal applicants in 2019 are still waiting for their Oaths, whilst all other cities clock in around 49%; basically around a 9% margin of difference. I did not specifically count the rest of Quebec as I didn't want to have to consult Google Maps for every city on the "Location" list to see if they were processed by the Montreal office - if someone wishes to do the legwork for that, we might see different numbers. The ideal scenario is where we see this on a "Per processing centre" basis as opposed to "per city", but, outside of those leaked emails awhile back, I don't think it will be that easy to do the mappings (unless someone has access to that data.)
Also of note: It appears that the ratio of people in Montreal waiting for Oaths vs. Oaths administered in 2021 is really low as opposed to the rest of the processing centres. Of course, if we were to break down each processing centre atomically, we may see those numbers even out, but, for now, this was all I could do.
Hope this is useful to some of you. If not, no worries, but I thought it was interesting, nontheless. Still doesn't remove the sting of October and November folks seemingly are jumping the queue on Oaths prior to the September ones - not the applicant's faults, of course; it's just how the IRCC deities have decided for the processing to happen.
Disclaimer: I am NOT a data scientist, nor do I claim to be. I didn't even sleep at a Holiday Inn last night. Constructive feedback is always welcome, but please do keep this in mind.
End results:
As you can see, 52% (53%, if you're rounding up) of all Montreal applicants in 2019 are still waiting for their Oaths, whilst all other cities clock in around 49%; basically around a 9% margin of difference. I did not specifically count the rest of Quebec as I didn't want to have to consult Google Maps for every city on the "Location" list to see if they were processed by the Montreal office - if someone wishes to do the legwork for that, we might see different numbers. The ideal scenario is where we see this on a "Per processing centre" basis as opposed to "per city", but, outside of those leaked emails awhile back, I don't think it will be that easy to do the mappings (unless someone has access to that data.)
Also of note: It appears that the ratio of people in Montreal waiting for Oaths vs. Oaths administered in 2021 is really low as opposed to the rest of the processing centres. Of course, if we were to break down each processing centre atomically, we may see those numbers even out, but, for now, this was all I could do.
Hope this is useful to some of you. If not, no worries, but I thought it was interesting, nontheless. Still doesn't remove the sting of October and November folks seemingly are jumping the queue on Oaths prior to the September ones - not the applicant's faults, of course; it's just how the IRCC deities have decided for the processing to happen.
| 2019 | Mtl appl. | Total | < 2021 MTL Oath | 2021/2 MTL Oath | MTL Waiting Oath | < 2021 NonMTL Oath | 2021/2 NonMTL Oath | NonMTL Waiting Oath | Notes |
| Jan | 4 | 108 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 1 | 1 | |
| Feb | 6 | 80 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 4 | |
| Mar | 5 | 118 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 73 | 8 | 32 | |
| Apr | 9 | 154 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 76 | 12 | 57 | |
| May | 14 | 157 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 79 | 7 | 57 | |
| Jun | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 12 | 67 | |
| Jul | 14 | 165 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 16 | 90 | |
| Aug | 9 | 142 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 99 | |
| Sep | 8 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 78 | |
| Oct | 9 | 152 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 83 | |
| Nov | 10 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 31 | 79 | (Count is low by 1 on the "Other" Count, but can't tell where) |
| Dec | 7 | 100 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 67 | |
| %age MTL: | 6.29% | ||||||||
| %age 2019 MTL waiting for Oath: | 52.58% | ||||||||
| %age 2019 Other waiting for Oath: | 49.45% |
