Ray of Hope - 138th Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Anyone knows (predicts) how late would you need to get AOR in order to complete the whole process and land this year?
Maybe May? Landing in December??
Maybe May? Landing in December??
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You can summit and accept until you satisfied 3 yrs experience. 470 is not a safety score in the future.Just got my ITA, my CRS is now 470 from the system, however, I think the system doesn't calculate it right, since it's not until March that I have 3yrs experience and add those 25 extra points. So I guess my only option is to decline this invitation and hope the CRS will not shoot up the next time
quilleroarg
Star Member
- Jul 15, 2019
- 68
- Category........
- FSW
- Visa Office......
- Ottawa
- NOC Code......
- 2171
- Pre-Assessed..
- Yes
- App. Filed.......
- 30-03-2020
- AOR Received.
- 31-03-2020
- Passport Req..
- 18-02-2022
- VISA ISSUED...
- 15-03-2022
- LANDED..........
- 06-04-2022
Just wait the days left to have the experience before submitting the application bro, no need to decline if you have 60 days to apply... Unless you don't have the other requirements...Just got my ITA, my CRS is now 470 from the system, however, I think the system doesn't calculate it right, since it's not until March that I have 3yrs experience and add those 25 extra points. So I guess my only option is to decline this invitation and hope the CRS will not shoot up the next time
What do u think is responsible for the increase in number of ITA( from 3500 to 4500)
1. For IRCC to make up for declined ITAs
2. In other meet their 85k target
3. To flush out the 470s and give room for 460s that are equally qualified.
4. To get more family people to settle in canada. Is always difficult for family to have high score.
5. They are planning to take a 3 week break or conduct FST draw ?
6. Immigration targets have increased
1. For IRCC to make up for declined ITAs
2. In other meet their 85k target
3. To flush out the 470s and give room for 460s that are equally qualified.
4. To get more family people to settle in canada. Is always difficult for family to have high score.
5. They are planning to take a 3 week break or conduct FST draw ?
6. Immigration targets have increased
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No don't decline.. submit your application once you finish 3 years.. don't waste the ITA, think about the fellow members in this forum.. be a human pls!!Just got my ITA, my CRS is now 470 from the system, however, I think the system doesn't calculate it right, since it's not until March that I have 3yrs experience and add those 25 extra points. So I guess my only option is to decline this invitation and hope the CRS will not shoot up the next time
6. Next draw happens in two weeks with 3500 ITA's.
This sudden increase in draw size is very confusing, nobody expected it.
Can I really do that? The VO will not calculate my working experience based on the date of ITA? I'm confused man.
Will the VO count the working experience based on the date of submitting instead of the date of getting ITA?
I'm not quite sure about which scenario is correct.Bro
My immigration representative told me that submit your application once you finish 3 years. You can consult an immigration representative to confirm it. I sit on 470 and got ITA today. It may a last chance for 470.
Lol use normal distribution may be betterbeing a statistics professor
with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:
"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"
eg: for current situation(crs of 470)
number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....
for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531
n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.
what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300
out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...
I spent the whole day thinking about what were the reasons behind this unprecedented increase in the number of ITAs. I believe it's either:
1. To compensate for the B2B draw that should have happened in the last week of January, they decided to split these 3400 ITAs that would have been given, and today's and next 2 draws will have +1000 ITAs than the usual.
2. Maybe CIC was not expecting such increase in the number of candidates in the 450-600 range, and realized that Canada could benefit from these immigrants in the 465+ range that are currently being ignored. When the cutoff was fluctuating between 440-450, they really didn't have to pursue the candidates in the 430 range, because most of them didn't even had CLB9, they simply were not an asset for the Canadian economy. Maybe it's a crazy ideia, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they release a new target for 2020 in the coming weeks, to accommodate highly skilled professionals that want to immigrate, but are not being given the chance.
3. They're planning FST for next week, but do not want to see the usual spike in the CRS cutoff that post-FST draws usually get, because that would frighten very qualified outland candidate, that wouldn't be able to beat a +480's cutoff reality. That could easily turn EE into an inland process (pretty much just like almost all PNPs programs that required job offers).
1. To compensate for the B2B draw that should have happened in the last week of January, they decided to split these 3400 ITAs that would have been given, and today's and next 2 draws will have +1000 ITAs than the usual.
2. Maybe CIC was not expecting such increase in the number of candidates in the 450-600 range, and realized that Canada could benefit from these immigrants in the 465+ range that are currently being ignored. When the cutoff was fluctuating between 440-450, they really didn't have to pursue the candidates in the 430 range, because most of them didn't even had CLB9, they simply were not an asset for the Canadian economy. Maybe it's a crazy ideia, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they release a new target for 2020 in the coming weeks, to accommodate highly skilled professionals that want to immigrate, but are not being given the chance.
3. They're planning FST for next week, but do not want to see the usual spike in the CRS cutoff that post-FST draws usually get, because that would frighten very qualified outland candidate, that wouldn't be able to beat a +480's cutoff reality. That could easily turn EE into an inland process (pretty much just like almost all PNPs programs that required job offers).
Not saying it's number 2 because I don't think it is, but there is no reason why they should compensate for a B2B draw in january. They dont have to make a back 2 back draw just because it happened a couple of times. And FST were included in this round. Just read the footnote. Maybe that is the reason they have more people this time.