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Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

Itas

Full Member
Aug 8, 2019
23
17
Jump is always gradual. Not this absurd. Besides it would have been understandable if they had a month between the draws. 2 weeks is just to less for such a chaotic upsurge. Now I am not discrediting you. Better candidates would also have been a factor. But it cannot be this much impactful. The assumption is factually not sound.
Same thing happened in draw 110. Scores shot up from 438 to 457 in january, and didn't come below 450 since. I dont feel discredited, don't worry. This is just a discussion forum
 

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
439
127
Have you guys considered the possibility that there may be "bot" manipulation going on. Create a bunch of fake profiles to keep scores artificially high. Who would do that and why? Group of big agents to sell people on their services and also PNP promises. Just a thought.

Like others, numbers seem to be off.
Your idea sounds very feasible. Did not think about it. May be the opposition is doing that in front of their elections? Actually some people from Canada can do that too to prevent us from coming..
 

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
439
127
Yeah, but there are holes to this theory.

- Wouldn't CIC notice if this was happening?
- How will they meet their target? Because people won't be actually applying.

Or maybe it is actual demand..
- Would they actually care?
- Is this a real target? Dont forget, people spend a lot of money for a chance to apply. Just to become eligible.
 
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Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

Hero Member
Apr 19, 2019
321
331
30
Category........
FSW
It’s hard to explain. I’m good in statistics and when strange things like this happen, I can sense something fishy is going on. Does not add up.

The strangest thing is that the rising number of those people with 460 would most likely be reflected by rising activity here and on other forums because people normally have many questions.

If we speak about pnps - we would hear and see these people rising in this percentage and screaming about getting their pnps.
Consider that again. May 31 and July 12 saw two OINP draws. Around 2700 invitations were issued. Now lets say that about 2000 were converted into actual nominations. OINP processing time varies from 2-4 months. It is very likely that the major chunk of those were issued nomination only recently, or at least updated their profiles with 600 points recently, since the build up in 600+ category in the draws since July was never quite as much as expected, given the PNPs. Now add to this AINP and SINP nomination.

Besides, 460+ candidates cannot be as high as I said. They don't rain out of nowhere. Not like they were kids coming out from their classes in recess time lol.

I mean, come on. You seem like a logical person, and all you got is gut feeling as evidence?
As for activity for PNP guys, try following Facebook forums. They are coming around in huge numbers!!
 

Captain789

Hero Member
May 27, 2018
439
127
Consider that again. May 31 and July 12 saw two OINP draws. Around 2700 invitations were issued. Now lets say that about 2000 were converted into actual nominations. OINP processing time varies from 2-4 months. It is very likely that the major chunk of those were issued nomination only recently, or at least updated their profiles with 600 points recently, since the build up in 600+ category in the draws since July was never quite as much as expected, given the PNPs. Now add to this AINP and SINP nomination.

Besides, 460+ candidates cannot be as high as I said. They don't rain out of nowhere. Not like they were kids coming out from their classes in recess time lol.

I mean, come on. You seem like a logical person, and all you got is gut feeling as evidence?
As for activity for PNP guys, try following Facebook forums. They are coming around in huge numbers!!
It’s odd because people say that OINP is issued within the 6 month time frame - up to 10 months if you are lucky.
 

BLACKPILL

Star Member
Jun 8, 2019
107
43
PNP will become mainstream I feel. Bad news for people below 460. We can’t justify rely on a random b2b draw to try out luck, 456 is a bad score for now.
 
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Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

Hero Member
Apr 19, 2019
321
331
30
Category........
FSW
Same thing happened in draw 110. Scores shot up from 438 to 457 in january, and didn't come below 450 since. I dont feel discredited, don't worry. This is just a discussion forum
That's because the time period between draw #110 (438) and #111 (457) was of 21 days, whereas between draw #109 and #110 was of 7 days.
 

BLACKPILL

Star Member
Jun 8, 2019
107
43
Folks there is no point in analyzing why it is 463. Every year there is about 10 points increase in cutoff. I am pretty sure the cutoff will remain around high 450s, 460-470 soon if PNP keeps on going. Better figure out another way to get PR.
 

Itas

Full Member
Aug 8, 2019
23
17
That's because the time period between draw #110 (438) and #111 (457) was of 21 days, whereas between draw #109 and #110 was of 7 days.
True. Before this #110 draw, 440s were the norm, then 450s became the norm from january. Now it looks like 460 might become the new normal in terms of the cut offs. And at 454, I feel like there is no way I will get an ITA by the end of this year.
 

CananEE123

Full Member
Aug 20, 2019
26
10
Who on earth can explain what just happened here? Why are the scores 463 ?? After a b2b draw we have 457 , then normalization to the 2 weekly draw we now have 463. Could someone kindly help with a logical explanation? I’m utterly confused!
They control the scores from tie break last time. I knew there will be a hike.