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Ray of Hope - 93rd Draw

DS895 said:
Well if thts the case

So what do you think will be CRS cut off on 27th june draw?
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Best guess 448. But hope I will be pleasantly surprised.
 
I am at 439 after several attempts at IELTS this year only. Don't see much hope the way it is going. I'm going to lose 5 points this August.
 
Diptinaik7 said:
Jan 10-2750 ita-446
jan 24-2750 ita-444
feb 7-3000 ita-442
feb 21-3000 ita-442
march 14-3000 ita-456
march 26-3000 ita-446
april 11 -3500 ita-444
april 25-3500 ita-441
may 9-3500 ita-441
may 23- 3500 ita-440
June 13-3750- 451
Let us look at the statistics- when the draw took place on March 14 i.e after 21 days approx the score increased to 456 hence increase by 14 points. This points further dropped by 10 in the next draw and a drop of 1 or 2 points was seen in the following draws until June 13 again after 21 days the points increased to 451. A total of 35250 itas has been issued. Canada is targeting approximately 80-81k applicants so that comes to approx 45k ita which is still to be issued. The candidates in 431-440 are 7800 approx and above 440 approx 2500. so I believe that the score would definitely drop in the coming draws. I hope it falls down to 430s at least.
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Last time there was gap of 3 weeks on March 14 next draw happened after 11 days on 12th day ie 2 days sooner.. May be this trend will be repeated for upcoming draw.. If it happens we can expect a little lower cut off..
 
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Well if the rate of people entering the pool with 451+ remains the same as in last draw, which was ridiculously high, approx. 206 per day, around 3000 ITAs will be issued to them, and only around 700-800 to those below 451. I don't think the cut-off will be way below 450 if the rate remains the same or increases. Let's hope it was the IELTS effect, or else, someone on this thread rightly predicted that it would take 27 draws for the score to come down to 440s, :( The cut-off might be 448+/-1 on 23/06. Hoping for a Monday draw.
 
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Micky345 said:
My prediction for next week draw
CRS - 447
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Most probably 447.. or 448..last time after a 12-day draw, it fell from 456 to 446 I guess..so let's hope for a draw on Monday.
 
NOMAD2017 said:
Well if the rate of people entering the pool with 451+ remains the same as in last draw, which was ridiculously high, approx. 206 per day, around 3000 ITAs will be issued to them, and only around 700-800 to those below 451. I don't think the cut-off will be way below 450 if the rate remains the same or increases. Let's hope it was the IELTS effect, or else, someone on this thread rightly predicted that it would take 27 draws for the score to come down to 440s, :( The cut-off might be 448+/-1 on 23/06. Hoping for a Monday draw.
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If 451+ remains same 206 / day as u said (though i calculated 192) new entrants will be 2884..leaving 864 for below 451 and around 100 at 451 from last draw.. the cut off should be 446-447 considering 220-250 profiles at each point below 451... (3750-2884=864-100=764/230=3.3 points fall..450-3.3 so it shud b 447 or low).. all predictions only.. nobody knows actual situation
 
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Happyships said:
Hoping to get ITA in next draw !!! waiting since last 6 months , finally able to score CLB 10 in IELTS (3rd attempt) and current score is 481.
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Nice congrats... you don’t need Hope any longer:D
Having said that ensure your documentation for application submission is bullet proof...
 
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