Ray of Hope - 79th Draw

[abhishek_89]

Hi, what is the methodology used for this prediction? Not questioning, just curious about its accuracy.

I am using data which CIC publishes on their website to calculate average intake to the Express Entry pool per day at each CRS range. That's the basis for my prediction.

 

[SrikanthRam]

I am using data which CIC publishes on their website to calculate average intake to the Express Entry pool per day at each CRS range. That's the basis for my prediction.

Hey Abhishek, can you comment on:
1. The probability of back-to-back draws in December.
2. What the odds are for a cutoff around ~435 before the end of this year.

 

[appar]

I am using data which CIC publishes on their website to calculate average intake to the Express Entry pool per day at each CRS range. That's the basis for my prediction.

Thanks. I hope you are correct.

 

[abhishek_89]

Just occurred to me that all quota might have been met and there'll probably be no draw tomorrow. Jan 3 should probably be the next draw with 3500 ITAs.

If you observe the draws from January 2015 (from when Express Entry started), CIC has never had a month without a draw. This is done to ensure that they keep on getting the top layer of the pool based on their PR targets.

So, they would always ensure to divide their remaining targets across all the remaining draws of the year.

For example, if they want to issue 10K ITA's in Nov and Dec and are planning to have 4 draws, they would split the remaining target of 10K ITA's across these 4 draws (mostly 2.5K ITA's in each draw).

 

[abhishek_89]

Hey Abhishek, can you comment on:
1. The probability of back-to-back draws in December.
2. What the odds are for a cutoff around ~435 before the end of this year.

1. High probability of a back to back draw as they had a bigger than normal gap for the 79th draw.
2. Assuming they continue with 2750 ITAs in the remaining draws of 2017, it depends on when they conduct the draws:
If draws occur on Dec 6th, Dec 13th and Dec 20th: Very high chance (almost 100%) for the CRS cut off to go below 435.
If draws occur on Dec 6th and Dec 13th: High chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435 if not would be in close proximity.
If draws occur on Dec 6th and Dec 20th: Very low chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435.
If draws occur on Dec 13th and Dec 20th: Very low chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435.

 

[abhishek_89]

noooooo i hope its 430

If the next draw has CRS 430 as the cut off, it would be a record draw with the highest number of ITA's issued in a single draw (around 5000).

 

[SrikanthRam]

1. High probability of a back to back draw as they had a bigger than normal gap for the 79th draw.
2. Assuming they continue with 2750 ITAs in the remaining draws of 2017, it depends on when they conduct the draws:
If draws occur on Dec 6th, Dec 13th and Dec 20th: Very high chance (almost 100%) for the CRS cut off to go below 435.
If draws occur on Dec 6th and Dec 13th: High chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435 if not would be in close proximity.
If draws occur on Dec 6th and Dec 20th: Very low chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435.
If draws occur on Dec 13th and Dec 20th: Very low chance for the CRS cut off to go below 435.

Thanks buddy, hope its 6, 13 and 20!

 

[Murthi]

Hi everyone
This tread gives a lot of hope n im happy to see that many of the folks here sail in the same boat as I do ( eagerly expecting for an ita).
I have a query regarding the employment doc. One of my friend who is expecting an ita, works for a small concern. He has already arranged for the experience letter stating all details as specified by cic ( in the company letter head signed by the proprietor). But he can't provide any pay stubs r bank statements as the salary is paid by cash. Is that a problem? What other supporting doc is required? Is experience letter with all details sufficient?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Hashaed]

Hello Guys...

I am not sure if my situation may imply in my EE application.
As per CRS Calculator I have 449 Points, and hopefully I will be receiving the ITA tomorrow. However I am in implied status.
My visa expired on Oct 31, and I have sent by papers the docs to extend my WorkVisa (Obviously to get more time).
Today I received a letter saying that my application was incomplete and I need to pay an extra fee and resend the docs withing 90 days.

My questions are:

1 - Getting the ITA tomorrow I will be able to send an application to get the bridging WP? (I have job and will be frustrated to lose it).
2 - I need to send the WorkVisa extension by paper to remain in implied status, and then I will be able to send the application to get the bridging WP?
3 - I will never get the bridging WP because my "legal" status already expired on Oct31?
4 - I do not need to send neither the bridging WP application nor the WorkVisa application, because with lucky my Permanent Resident will be come first?

Thanks for any help.

 

[sinou39]

Alright peeps, i have no idea if i will make the cut if there is a draw tomorrow, but I hope there is a draw and at least some of us make it! And for the others among us that don't make it in the next draw, I am sure things will get better in the new year. Hang in there!

Is it just me, or do others see a lack of optimism in this thread?

 

[appar]

All the best to everyone for the likely draw tomorrow.

 

[master113]

By what date, the profile should have been submitted to be eligible for tomorrow's draw ?
Also, the EE profile shows MET only in one category. PNP will be met when we do something or PNP people picks us for nomination?

 

[master113]

By what date, the profile should have been submitted to be eligible for tomorrow's draw ?
Also, the EE profile shows MET only in one category. PNP will be met when we do something or PNP people picks us for nomination?

 

[sundar17feb99]

So if you are not in good terms with your manager. Is it advisable to use them? What can you do in this instance where HR is not willing to give letter in the agreed format and Supervisor is a jerk?

There were many members including me, who were in your shoes.
Get your senior colleague write a letter for you and notarize if possible along with it, include his/her business card.
To substantiate your claim, include any official slips like pay slips, tax slips, compensation letters. Also, please don't forget to brief your cause in LOE.

 

[sundar17feb99]

Hi everyone
This tread gives a lot of hope n im happy to see that many of the folks here sail in the same boat as I do ( eagerly expecting for an ita).
I have a query regarding the employment doc. One of my friend who is expecting an ita, works for a small concern. He has already arranged for the experience letter stating all details as specified by cic ( in the company letter head signed by the proprietor). But he can't provide any pay stubs r bank statements as the salary is paid by cash. Is that a problem? What other supporting doc is required? Is experience letter with all details sufficient?

Thanks in advance.

If the experience letter has all the details with company seal/letter, that would suffice.
Please note that your experience letter should have

• hours worked per week
• permanent/temporary employee
• roles and reponsibilities
• employee id
• designation(if any)