This doesn't account for influx of candidates. People who graduated in 2020 will slowly start getting to one year experience as the year goes on. They have potentially as many (or more) people as they have already issued ITAs to this year, who will become CEC eligible. There's no way to accurately estimate this number, especially considering the lack of clarity of how many of these people already applied through the new streams, how many wil apply twice to get an ITA quicker if it's possible etc.
This candidate pool distribution compares the pool on different dates. I checked this to find out the CRS ranges of CEC / FSW / PNP
That Feb draw actually showed us in which range the CEC folks are standing.
Since there was a month of gap after the 28K draw it's difficult to determine the exact range of folks who were CEC.
0-460 (85%) - CEC >460 - 15%
400-599 (95%) - FSW <400 - 5%
600-1200 - PNP
So if there is no streamlining, then the IRCC has / will utilize(d) the complete (~90%) pool in this year. if there are FSW draws then the lowest cut off it'll reach is 464-467 in 2021 and the OINP follows the FSW cutoff
Please share your understandings, speculations & insights about this if you saw this post.