Israel has a much better electronic health records which has helped them organize and track who is getting vaccinated and who remains unvaccinated. They also are much stronger when it comes to contact tracing.Don't think you have to vaccinate kids to reach herd immunity. See Israel for example. Also in UK, daily deaths are in single digits (from 1000s in January). You could argue they are also close to reaching herd immunity, without vaccinating kids. I predict end of June or mid July Canada will be in the same position as Israel is currently. Will Canada risk opening the borders to new immigrants then (even partially) or will they play it safe for a few more months. I honestly don't know.
It's almost certain that the travel restrictions will be extended for two more months. Last month I was hoping there might be some relief for post March 18 COPR holders, but given the current situation in Canada, there is close to zero chance the same restrictions don't get extended. It will also politically be a very bad move if you start opening borders when your own citizens are under stay at home orders.
UK has literally just started slowly opening up so you can’t really comment on whether they have herd immunity. Still too early to see whether Israel has hit herd immunity. Israel is much more strict about making sure those entering are isolating away from other family members respect, the quarantine rules and have contact with noone. Canada’s policies aren’t enforced and there are lots of loopholes. The P1 variant became an issue out West because of a traveller who entered Canada and went to Whistler. Masks only stopped being required this week in Israel including outdoors and they have a vaccine passport system to enter things like a restaurant. Think that very good public health measures, having around half the population vaccinated and having slighter under 1 million residents who had covid all contributed to the low levels of covid. The climate in Israel also helps and so does being such a small and compact country. It is much easier to organize vaccinations when you have the technology and the logistics already in place. Given the instability in the region Israel has practice organization these large scale operations.
I still think we are far from being in the same situation in Canada. You are talking about 2.5 months away. We will hopefully have the 3rd wave under better control at that point and that would be a win. Delays in some of our vaccine shipments have been announced. Number of Occupied beds in hospital have a 4-6 week lag time. Although summer will allow people to go outdoors Canadians want to take advantage of the few warm months and it will be very difficult to tell people to limit contact with people outside their immediate family. Other countries are also experiencing a 3rd wave which is only get worse. Canada will want to ensure that our covid status has been stabilized for a while before opening up the borders more. Even if 55% of people in Canada are vaccinated with the first shot in June/July we could have a 4th wave if there is a variant that doesn’t respond or doesn’t provide much coverage to one of the variants. If people had at least 2 shots there would a higher chance that people would at least remain out of hospital even if infected. With the Majority of Canada only having one shot I think it would be risky to return to normal immigration during the summer. The government has tried to avoid the opening and closing. So far many provinces haven’t done a good job but it will be even more complicated if it involved people entering from abroad, booking flights, quitting jobs, giving notice or selling homes, etc. Many of those approved for PR after March 18, 2020 have gone through so much I can only assume that nobody wants to repeat what happened last year with many having quit their jobs and given up their home only to find out they they couldn’t travel. Once outland immigration starts the government likely only wants to move forward. Canadians aren’t even supposed to be traveling within the country so until that is possible for at least a month if not more you would hope that immigration wouldn’t return to normal. Unfortunately many of our policies don’t make sense like our current restrictions on traveling in and out of Ontario by land yet you can fly in from hot zones of Covid across the world or fly to from another province like a Ontario and risk spreading covid. Think people need to accept that covid isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The fact that many governments have talked about covid as something we need to conquer and then we can all move on after getting vaccinate is not the reality. I unfortunately think we are going to be dealing with covid forever. Hopefully I am wrong but I think we are going for a longer process.