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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
502
655
Lol the same way you said B2B would never happen, and I actually believed you and panicked.
I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.
 

sun2088

Full Member
Nov 13, 2020
43
27
I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.
Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.
 

MK00004

Star Member
Sep 12, 2010
145
8
Hey guys, congratulations to everyone who made , just want to get an idea what timeline we are looking at after the ITA till ppr considering everything is smooth thanks
 

huyypeter

Star Member
Aug 14, 2019
98
53
It
Question. Where are you getting that in the last draw, there were 344 created per day for profiles created at 471+. I'm getting about 280 per day. The total profiles at 471+ as per Nov 23 = 2,359. The same per Nov 16 = 5,112. So now if I do 2,359 - (5,112 - 5,000) = 2,247. Then, the total number of days between the draw data = 8 days and so 2,247/ 8 = approx 280 profiles created per day at 471 and above.
it’s the data of nov 16 and nov 23, so it’s 1 week, 7 days man. Around 328 ppl entered per day. And this is not the number from only this draw, it has been like that for a while
 

Optimistman

Newbie
Oct 31, 2020
8
9
I indeed said a b2b was unlikely (never said impossible, btw), and I had a basis for my argument. Yet, My argument was all based on the idea that we would have a normal draw on December 2nd, and then another normal draw on December 16th.
No one really predicted a B2B on November. After all, we were all discussing whether or not there would be a B2B in December. Now, with that B2B draw in November (which, btw, is a first), it's really hard to predict which path IRCC will follow:

Another draw on December 9th and a B2B in December 16th
Or a draw in December 9th and an unprecedented draw on December 30th (since I bet they hardly would do a draw just 2 days before Xmas).

Besides all of that, my answer to the post was pretty straight forward and correct: the influx of candidates in the pool with 471+ points during that 1 week gap between draws was unchanged, or as matter of fact, it actually INCREASED.
During the last 3 previous draws, the influx in the 471-600 range was, respectively, 288/285/285 candidates/day.
For the last draw, the b2b one, the influx was 344 candidates/day. If that rate persists, 14 days would bring around 4,800 candidates to the 471-600 range on the next draw. 4,800 for the 471-600, we still need to count the PNPs (which, frankly, is impossible to predict).

Unless IRCC starts random (and pretty frequent) B2Bs, there's just no data to support the idea that we'll be reaching 460 by February. As always, I say to those that are sitting in the lower 460 (and even higher 460's): go after a plan to increase your score. Don't have "hopes" for a draw that might never come. If it happens, great, but don't just sit still hoping for a miracle.

Finally, unless you have some math to debunk these numbers, I kindly ask you to stop with "LOLs". I'm just presenting the data we can extract from the numbers.
People really have time. All these analysis for something you have zero expertise on. I particularly like how you are quick to educate us on the difference between “unlikely “ and “impossible”. Bro just rest.

my small advice is don’t listen to anyone here, we all don’t know jack. So to base your actions on postulations from this group is not necessarily the best move. Don’t be optimistic or pessimistic or even realistic (whatever that means), just keep doing everything to increase your score. Like the guys who already started studying for TEF and suddenly don’t need it anymore.

God will help all of us.
 

Parve

Full Member
May 14, 2020
44
13
Hi all,

I received the results of my medical exam and the biometrics collection letter last night.
However, I am unable to schedule an appointment for biometrics as I am seeing the 403 error when I try to navigate to the India VACs webpage.

Is anyone else going through the same issue? Please let me know.
 

Islander216

Champion Member
Nov 27, 2019
1,826
1,102
People really have time. All these analysis for something you have zero expertise on. I particularly like how you are quick to educate us on the difference between “unlikely “ and “impossible”. Bro just rest.

my small advice is don’t listen to anyone here, we all don’t know jack. So to base your actions on postulations from this group is not necessarily the best move. Don’t be optimistic or pessimistic or even realistic (whatever that means), just keep doing everything to increase your score. Like the guys who already started studying for TEF and suddenly don’t need it anymore.

God will help all of us.
realistic
/rɪəˈlɪstɪk/
Learn to pronounce

adjective

  1. 1.
    having or showing a sensible and practical idea of what can be achieved or expected.
    "I thought we had a realistic chance of winning"

  2. 2.
    representing things in a way that is accurate and true to life.
    "a realistic human drama"
 

jesse1120

Star Member
Apr 21, 2020
68
35
After filling it completely ? It would take some time as the details like 10 yr address would take some time

And does these 10 yr address need to be very accurate ? I don’t remember my house #s for 2011,12 as I was just a paying guest sort of tenant
I am doing it for the first time too but I believe it needs to be as accurate as possible. The checklist is available some where online but that will not be customised to your specifics.
 
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