My Prediction -
Assuming we see another FSW draw on 22nd July, the current pool size is 3750+ with CRS 470+, and with a similar influx of candidates as the last 15 days, Approx 1000 will be added in this pool of 470+ CRS.
So if there is a draw with 3900 invitations like this one, I'm assuming the Draw will be at 473-476 on 22nd July.
What do you guys think?
Yep, I'm modelling my predictions with similar numbers.
As of July 6th, the pool had 3,756 candidates (considering 3,900 are out now).
From the previous draw to June 6th, the 470+ range increased by around 800 candidates.
Yet, I do expect that from now on the rate of new candidates will slowly start to increase, draw after draw. So, I would work with a +500 increase every 2 weeks as a *conservative* guess.
Remember: before the PNP/CEC phase, the rate of new candidates entering the pool was always around 250-280 candidates/day in the 471+ range. Now, we're considering a rate of ~ 95 candidates/day for the July 22nd. I really don't think I'm being pessimist here. To be quite honest, I won't be chocked if on the next draw we already see a rate of 150-200 candidates/day entering the pool. IELTS are pretty much back to normal, besides US. The only factor limiting here is WES, which no one knows exactly how fast is processing new requests.
Therefore, under these predictions (+500 candidates each 14 days, on top of the previous week trend), the scenario looks like this:
22nd July: 3756 + 800 + 500 = 5056 candidates with 471+
5th August: 5056 - 3900 + 800 + 2*500 = 2956 candidates
19th August: 2956 -3900 + 800 + 3*500 = 1356 candidates
2nd September: 1356 - 3900 + 800 + 4*500 = 256 candidates
16th September: 256 - 3900 + 800 + 5*500 = -344 candidates
(therefore, here we would start to touch on 469-470)
Between the 2nd Sept and 16th Sept we would probably reach the "normal" level of candidates entering the pool, I mean: we would hit the plateau of the cutoff, after that, IRCC would probably stop inviting 3900 candidates (if not earlier!), or otherwise they'll will reach their annual target WAYYY before December. So, unless WES *really* doesn't deliver ECAs at a normal rate by September (which seems really unlikely to me), I wouldn't count on scores hitting anywhere close to 465 or below.