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17th draw

Asivad Anac

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May 27, 2015
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singh100 said:
how can you say this.. do you have any news from cic or any link where we can see this.
plz don we offended but stop predicting these thing owe your own.
No. I don't have any news or link from CIC for this. If there were one, threads like this wouldn't exist.

I'm not predicting anything. I'm simply pointing out the possibility of something happening based on a limited set of past data points. That is a hypothesis not a prediction.
 
 

bestofluck

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Aug 11, 2015
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GARJ said:
Haha, what a pointed reply. This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna try and refute your claims:
1) Provincial nominations won't all kick in at the same time, and it's not a guarantee, for example, that all 2,700 Ontario PN applicants will be approved and selected. I am sure that there are quite a number of rejected applications. So, even if next month we see there's 1K applicants with PN in the pool (Which is extremely unlikely btw), the regular number of ITAs in a draw, which is 1500 lately, would likely absorb all applicants with the PN and then a few stragglers, bringing the score down to it's current average of 450~. We are not gonna see CRS score rise and stay in 700s just because of PNs.

2) The reason the score will fall bellow 450: As CIC has said it numerous times, there's currently a backlog of old applications that are still being processed, but once the backlog is eliminated, EE will be the main source for selecting immigration applicants. Less backlog = More ITAs sent out = Applicants with scores bellow 450 get selected. The backlog for FSW applications is set to be gone by 2016, and I know for a fact that as late as December 20, 2015, the backlog for CEC applicants will be completely gone. So next year, which is only 3.5 months away, will bring a completely different EE selection process.

3) When it comes to the elections, this is were you are the most wrong. Each of the political parties running has a clear stance on immigration. One great example is Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe, the critic for Citizenship and Immigration in Tom Mulclair's team. She has been vocal and critical about Express Entry since the beginning, blasting Chris Alexander any chance she gets in Parliament. If the NDP wins, she's the new MP for Citizenship and Immigration, taking control over Express Entry. On the other hand, if the liberal party wins, they have promised to introduce an in Canada fast-track program to allow temporary workers, international students, and live-in caregivers to apply for permanent residence within Canada faster. Both the NDP and Liberal parties are currently ahead of the conservative party by at least 3 points in the polls, and the elections are 5 weeks away. The elections will have LOTS to do with immigration.
I agree Absolutely and would add more to say, If they don't bring the crs below 450 there would be drastic reduction in people entering EE pool , because Everyone entering will see the 2105 stats and so if they have less scores they wont even try entering!. They have to bring down the scores for once below 450 in 2105 to keep the EE live in 2016, They would do this in December and see the magic, 2016 will be flooded with entries., which is what they want.
 

Asivad Anac

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GARJ said:
Haha, what a pointed reply. This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna try and refute your claims:
1) Provincial nominations won't all kick in at the same time, and it's not a guarantee, for example, that all 2,700 Ontario PN applicants will be approved and selected. I am sure that there are quite a number of rejected applications. So, even if next month we see there's 1K applicants with PN in the pool (Which is extremely unlikely btw), the regular number of ITAs in a draw, which is 1500 lately, would likely absorb all applicants with the PN and then a few stragglers, bringing the score down to it's current average of 450~. We are not gonna see CRS score rise and stay in 700s just because of PNs.

I said 2700 over the next 3-4 months so it appears that you agree with me on the timelines here. 2700 PNs will be taken out from a much larger number of PTs that were sent out by Ontario so that factors in the rejections as well. I never said that the CRS will "rise and stay in 700s" - that's all yours.

2) The reason the score will fall bellow 450: As CIC has said it numerous times, there's currently a backlog of old applications that are still being processed, but once the backlog is eliminated, EE will be the main source for selecting immigration applicants. Less backlog = More ITAs sent out = Applicants with scores bellow 450 get selected. The backlog for FSW applications is set to be gone by 2016, and I know for a fact that as late as December 20, 2015, the backlog for CEC applicants will be completely gone. So next year, which is only 3.5 months away, will bring a completely different EE selection process.

You're agreeing with me here as well. I did suggest that there is a possibility that there will be at least 1 sub-450 draw before 2015 is over. Next year, there are likely to be draws below 450 especially in JFM.

3) When it comes to the elections, this is were you are the most wrong. Each of the political parties running has a clear stance on immigration. One great example is Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe, the critic for Citizenship and Immigration in Tom Mulclair's team. She has been vocal and critical about Express Entry since the beginning, blasting Chris Alexander any chance she gets in Parliament. If the NDP wins, she's the new MP for Citizenship and Immigration, taking control over Express Entry. On the other hand, if the liberal party wins, they have promised to introduce an in Canada fast-track program to allow temporary workers, international students, and live-in caregivers to apply for permanent residence within Canada faster. Both the NDP and Liberal parties are currently ahead of the conservative party by at least 3 points in the polls, and the elections are 5 weeks away. The elections will have LOTS to do with immigration.

I'm not wrong here either. Elections results affect policy issues and not the operational guidelines for a specific draw. So an electoral result might see a shift in immigration policy over the medium-term (say 2016-17) but anyone expecting a 400 cutoff the day after elections just because the Liberals are in power now doesn't understand how governments function. Even if there is a change of guard, it is unlikely to change anything for 2015 as far as EE draws are concerned.
 
 

One_Topsy

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Vixkingo said:
Hopefully tmr at 404 points. Prayers and Miracles.
Since it's prayer and miracles....y not 350?
 

farazh89

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Any idea what time the draws normally take place? I hope there is one today. If not the scores will again go above 450 next week.
 

bestofluck

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farazh89 said:
Any idea what time the draws normally take place? I hope there is one today. If not the scores will again go above 450 next week.
you are right. There are less chances today but anything could happen. I agree if there is draw today it will be below 450. Dont worry even on 25th it wont go up much
 
 

Tikhe0001

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Sep 14, 2015
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farazh89 said:
Any idea what time the draws normally take place? I hope there is one today. If not the scores will again go above 450 next week.
with CIC you never know. It cud be anytym.
 

bestofluck

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I guessed it to be below 450 and its touched 450 now.. Ready guys all of you below 450 and between 440 and 450 the chances are bright.
 

docsood

Star Member
Jun 1, 2015
66
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My score 414 :( .........should i be hopeful to get ITA by the end of 2015 :'(
Also I haven't got PT invite from Ontario.....don't know why? ???