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  1. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    If the ITA count is still 3500, then it will fall in 471-473. Since the cutline is already stablized for the draw pattern(14days gap/~3400ITA), there is very slim chance for the it to move (up or down) 2 points or more compared to the previous one.
  2. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    I was mistakenly increased to CRS499 29 days before I reached 2-year exp. I had to decline it twice before accepting the ITA. It is quite common.
  3. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    Retake a test wont make your previous results invalid. Why not give it a try and max it out? I took 6 CELPIP tests in 6 continuous weeks to get the ITA.
  4. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    Because it is better for him. CRS 470 with 10/10/10/7 implies: He is 26-28 years old, with a Canadian bachelor's degree, with 2 years of working experience. CELPIP's content is very Canadian. It is significant easier compared to IELTS if you lived in Canada for 5+ years. Plus: CELPIP happens...
  5. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    It is understandable that people choose to believe that cutline may go back to 46X. There is indeed a small chance that it can happen. But for all candidates who havent push your CRS to the max (at least 10,10,9-writing,9-speaking)), please do not sit and wait. You need to take actions to push...
  6. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    Hard to say, next draw should be 471-472. If the ITA increase to 3600, then 471 still have significant chances.
  7. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    474 should be a very safe score, learning a new language is just much harder than improve English writing (I assume it is writing, right?) from CLB 9 to 10. So I think you should give IELTS another shot. I was talking about the long-term tendency of the cutline. For this particular sharp...
  8. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    Here is the Canadian official data on international students enrollment: Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181128/dq181128c-eng.htm Every single one of these students will have PGWP and CRS of 480+. So the increase of the EE cutline should be well-expected. By the way...
  9. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    Headcount in pool on Jan20: CRS 450+: 778+19458 = 20236 Headcount in pool on Jan31: CRS 450+: 439+19861 = 20300 So within 11 days, 20300-20236+3400 = 3464 people enters the pool with CRS 450+. Assuming the rate is constant, within 14 days, 3463/11*14 = 4409 people enters the pool. This number...
  10. X

    Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

    yes unfortunately you have to do that. But 481 should be safe anyway.
  11. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    3400 ITA -> 470 3600 ITA -> 469
  12. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    I know many PHDs like you in my company. The thing is, PHDs are much easier to get a Canadian job offer even without being here. You can try to get a offer first and ask employer to assist your application with a LMIA (50 points).
  13. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    Just sit down and grab a drink. You will be out of this forum by Feb 5th.
  14. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    Did you max the CLBs already? If not please try to max it. 470 has considerable chances, 467 does not.
  15. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    You are right, The maximum you can get is CRS 481. And thats the max score outland applicant can get without PHD. It is very hard to achieve for 3 reasons: 1. CLB10 on all 4 sectors. 2. 3 years full-time exp with master's degree. 3. Under 30 year's old. You are certainly one of the best tho.
  16. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    It will stay below 480 for sure. Actually, 479 is an invisiable cutline cap. 1. It is almost not possible for outland applicants to reach 479 without a job offer. 2. It is almost not possible for inland applicants to reach 479 without bachelors degree/LMIA/PNP. Thus headcount density beyond...
  17. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    Here is my prediction on Feb 5th: Assuming for every score (469-475), N people enters the pool every day. Assuming K people enters pool with CRS 471+ every day. Assuming ITA count will be 3400. Assuming no effective tier-breaker since they cancel each other. On Jan 22th, 3400 ITAs were issued...
  18. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    There were multiple failed cases caused by this exact reason. One successful case does not mean anything. I would not take such risks.
  19. X

    Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

    That's a really selfish thing to say. People always created profiles first, then improve the scores by taking English tests etc. (remember there is a thing called tier-breaker rule?).