Ray of Hope - 138th Draw

[indianstudent96]

What about people who have maxed out their score and cannot improve further? Not everyone is willing to learn French from scratch just to improve their score.
Everybody knows that they need a high score to guarantee an ITA seeing the high cutoffs since 4-5 months and others spamming the same thing over and over does not help.

Also, what you are saying is you are a better candidate than everyone below your score? Really?

This is absurd. The CRS system ranks candidates based on the criteria set out by IRCC. I am blunt, but it is the truth. Some candidates are better than others (according to the system) because of this very criteria. If I have 479 and other candidates have a higher score than me, they are indeed "better" candidates. Nothing personal. Also, I never explicitly said that I am a better candidate than everyone with a lesser score than me, I said I want to be one of the best or better candidates and not make it just over the line. You are entitled to your opinion, but don't put words in my mouth. Also, I haven't been spamming, it's just a reminder to people to work on improving their scores rather than waiting for something that's not in your control. You control your own destiny. I maxed out on English too and I might have to learn French to get an ITA, but that's what I want and I will work hard for it. If you won't, then that's up to you. Simply hoping for the scores to come down is helping no one.

 

[indianstudent96]

You are not wrong and we should do everything possible to increase our scores. But what if the cutoff falls drastically, what will these doomsayers say then? Nobody predicted that the draw size will increase to 4500 suddenly in the last draw and there is no guarantee that score will drop, it may remain at 471+ from here on out, anything can happen. Simply spamming that score will never drop over and over is just plain stupid.

I'm also at 469 with CLB10 in IELTS and the only way to improve my score is to learn French which I will not do and if I don't get an invite just because of this, then that's fine, I don't have a dream or anything to settle in Canada anyway.

The draw size increasing to 4500 was unexpected and the drop of 2 points is not exactly a positive sign considering the draw size. Please try to be respectful of others by not calling names. Also, who said the scores will never come down? It depends up on the influx of candidates with high CRS scores. The sooner people get on board with current trends, the better chance they have. If you won't learn French, that's up to you. It's funny how you say you don't have a dream of settling in Canada, but you get annoyed and offended by the talk of rising CRS scores. All I am saying is people still have other options to come to Canada if they have a dream of moving to Canada. There are so many people who could have got an ITA when the cut-off was lower if they had worked on improving their scores instead of waiting for a drop in the cut-off score. There are still people who can get 470+ score with CLB 9 or 10, what do you tell them? Hope for the best and wait for the score to drop? If I were in their shoes, I would do everything within my power to get there.

 

[Melchett]

What about people who have maxed out their score and cannot improve further? Not everyone is willing to learn French from scratch just to improve their score.
Everybody knows that they need a high score to guarantee an ITA seeing the high cutoffs since 4-5 months and others spamming the same thing over and over does not help.

Also, what you are saying is you are a better candidate than everyone below your score? Really?

Well, too bad. Canada does not owe anyone anything. Everyone gets awarded points based on a set criteria that's as objective as it can be. Everything else is a matter of supply and demand. It's unfortunate that not everyone will get in, but that wasn't the point in the first place. Express Entry is not a charity - if your points are too low and the threshold doesn't go down - look at your other options. Moving to Canada is not a matter of life or death (if it is, there are other programs for such cases).

 

[seadrag0n]

Damn you guys are hardcore, just chillout. I am not getting offended or annoyed. Check previous ROH threads since the last FST draw, they are full of posts saying 470+ or 475+ is the new trend, cutoff will never drop below that, only way is increasing score blah blah. People already know this and all of the recent ROH threads are mostly filled with this crap.

 

[G35driver]

Hi guys,

Who is updating the "internal CRS tracker"?

 

[indianstudent96]

Damn you guys are hardcore, just chillout. I am not getting offended or annoyed. Check previous ROH threads since the last FST draw, they are full of posts saying 470+ or 475+ is the new trend, cutoff will never drop below that, only way is increasing score blah blah. People already know this and all of the recent ROH threads are mostly filled with this crap.

Lol. Are they wrong to say it? I don't think everyone is aware of this new trend; some are filled with false hope, thanks to misinformation. I am just wondering why you felt the need to respond to these posts if you think they are full of crap. If you don't like looking at these threads, feel free to avoid them. Anyways, I still wish you good luck.

 

[Canex17]

Let's be realistic here. Anything over 470 is very difficult to achieve. Even if there is a FST 475+ is going to be hard to top.

Unless there's a huge number of IEC candidates applying after 1 year Canadian experience I think it would be safe to assume that the majority of outland applicants won't have Canadian Experience.

Max IELTS + under 29 + 3 years foreign experience + (one of the following)

1. a bachelor degree = 441
2. 2 or more qualifications = 474
3. a master degree = 481

Or if we consider a student who came to Canada to study and has just graduated. I think it's fair to assume the majority (but not all) of these won't have relevant experience until after completing their education. Then they really only become competitive once they have 1 year of Canadian experience.

Max IELTS + under 29 + bachelor degree + (one of the following)

1. no Canadian experience = 421 (even with a masters degree it only jumps to 461)
2. 1 year Canadian experience = 474

Sure, you have those who max out all the relevant points, and have some combo of foreign and Canadian experience, but there'll have to be a huge uptick in those applicants to see the points jump in to the 480s. And once you step outside of these scenarios you also likely have people losing points due to age (minus 5 for each year over 30).

All this is to say, the points are currently high, and I understand why people are feeling panicked and disillusioned, but I think we also need to be realistic and hopeful. I just don't think the numbers support a jump in to the 480s. I could very well be wrong, and there very well could be thousands of incoming masters graduates that have accumulated experience in Canada as well as 3 years foreign, and maxed out their language skills, all before they turn 30.... but those applicants seem more like the exception rather than the rule....

 

[indianstudent96]

Let's be realistic here. Anything over 470 is very difficult to achieve. Even if there is a FST 475+ is going to be hard to top.

Unless there's a huge number of IEC candidates applying after 1 year Canadian experience I think it would be safe to assume that the majority of outland applicants won't have Canadian Experience.

Max IELTS + under 29 + 3 years foreign experience + (one of the following)

1. a bachelor degree = 441
2. 2 or more qualifications = 474
3. a master degree = 481

Or if we consider a student who came to Canada to study and has just graduated. I think it's fair to assume the majority (but not all) of these won't have relevant experience until after completing their education. Then they really only become competitive once they have 1 year of Canadian experience.

Max IELTS + under 29 + bachelor degree + (one of the following)

1. no Canadian experience = 421 (even with a masters degree it only jumps to 461)
2. 1 year Canadian experience = 474

Sure, you have those who max out all the relevant points, and have some combo of foreign and Canadian experience, but there'll have to be a huge uptick in those applicants to see the points jump in to the 480s. And once you step outside of these scenarios you also likely have people losing points due to age (minus 5 for each year over 30).

All this is to say, the points are currently high, and I understand why people are feeling panicked and disillusioned, but I think we also need to be realistic and hopeful. I just don't think the numbers support a jump in to the 480s. I could very well be wrong, and there very well could be thousands of incoming masters graduates that have accumulated experience in Canada as well as 3 years foreign, and maxed out their language skills, all before they turn 30.... but those applicants seem more like the exception rather than the rule....

Good analysis. The current trend indicates a huge spike in CEC candidates, thus making it very unpredictable. If the trend continues, we can't rule out the 480s, especially after the FST draw. I have a bachelor's degree from India + a 2-year certificate from a Canadian College + max IELTS and I will be obtaining a year of Canadian Experience by this May; this gives me 479 points. I wonder how many people are in the same situation as I am. Candidates with Canadian Master's will have a much higher score than me assuming that they get a year of Canadian Experience and max out on IELTS. Either way, I do not feel very safe with 479, getting my French up to CLB 7 would be a bit of work, but that will give me a boost of 43 points, and that's totally worth it in my opinion. I guess there's nothing to lose.

 

[santab]

I think people are not considering a huge inflow of US h1b's or those on OPTs. Especially Indians who see no prospect of GC in US.
My wife's almost entire MS batch has applied and got Canada PR. Most of these guys and girls are under 30 with 3 plus years experience. They have good command on English resulting in decent IELTS scores. Their education evaluation is done quicker by WES as they have bachelor degree already on record with WES and all they need is get their Masters from US evaluated. I think with this profile, as a single it is easy to score 470 plus. If married, a lot of these guys/girls have spouses with US masters degree resulting in better score as family. Think of number of Indian students that studied in US in year 2012-16 span. Most are under 30, with at least 3 years of experience in chosen NOC.

I had posted a similar analysis back in 2018 when scores started showing an upward trend.
My guess is that there is a large pool of such candidates, although i dont have any hard data.


Another factor is an increase in intercompany visa by India IT companies. That trend started in 2018. A lot of those folks although 30plus do get additional points for Candian experience and job offer. I am aware of a rough number, about 3 to 4k added by just 4 to 5 top indian IT companies in last 2 years. In an yearly target of 80k , 4-5 k represents 6 to 7%.

 

[indianstudent96]

I think people are not considering a huge inflow of US h1b's or those on OPTs. Especially Indians who see no prospect of GC in US.
My wife's almost entire MS batch has applied and got Canada PR. Most of these guys and girls are under 30 with 3 plus years experience. They have good command on English resulting in decent IELTS scores. Their education evaluation is done quicker by WES as they have bachelor degree already on record with WES and all they need is get their Masters from US evaluated. I think with this profile, as a single it is easy to score 470 plus. If married, a lot of these guys/girls have spouses with US masters degree resulting in better score as family. Think of number of Indian students that studied in US in year 2012-16 span. Most are under 30, with at least 3 years of experience in chosen NOC.

I had posted a similar analysis back in 2018 when scores started showing an upward trend.
My guess is that there is a large pool of such candidates, although i dont have any hard data.


Another factor is an increase in intercompany visa by India IT companies. That trend started in 2018. A lot of those folks although 30plus do get additional points for Candian experience and job offer. I am aware of a rough number, about 3 to 4k added by just 4 to 5 top indian IT companies in last 2 years. In an yearly target of 80k , 4-5 k represents 6 to 7%.

You hit the bull's eye. People seem to forget that they are competing against the best in the world. How crazy is that? I have always told everyone that the highest level of education and first official language proficiency can be the difference between getting your ITA in the first draw after creating your profile and getting stuck in the pool for years. In my opinion, people with even CLB 9 should consider re-taking IELTS or CELPIP if their current score is close to 470. In my case, CLB 9 would have given me 467 points while CLB 10 (I have CLB 10) gives me 479 points. It applies to almost everyone in the pool, an FSW candidate with 3 or more years of skilled experience, a master's degree, and CLB 10 gets a maximum score of 481 without any bonus points. Unfortunately, age could work against some candidates but they can still try to come here through intra-company transfer or as an international student. If I am not wrong, intra-company transfers can claim 50 points if they have a job offer valid for a year from the time they become a permanent resident. Getting an LMIA is a long process for most candidates. French does look appealing as it is something that you can learn as long as you are willing to put some effort into it.

 

[Lucasrdea]

Hey guys, first time posting something in here but following the ROH for a while. Nice to meet u all. xD
Question about my profile. I currently have 448 points. (It was a nice score 2 years ago) lol
Next September I will have 2 years of experience so that I will have 471 points. But at the end of December, it will drop to 466.
So basically I will have 471 from Sep until the end of December.
Is this a safe score to wait for an ITA? Or should I be worried?
My IELTS is L7.5 W6.5 R7 S8. I am already studying to get CLB9 ( I was close last time, lol). Let`s see.
What do you think? Waiting is too risky? Should I chill a bit?

 

[Lazybug]

Hey guys, first time posting something in here but following the ROH for a while. Nice to meet u all. xD
Question about my profile. I currently have 448 points. (It was a nice score 2 years ago) lol
Next September I will have 2 years of experience so that I will have 471 points. But at the end of December, it will drop to 466.
So basically I will have 471 from Sep until the end of December.
Is this a safe score to wait for an ITA? Or should I be worried?
My IELTS is L7.5 W6.5 R7 S8. I am already studying to get CLB9 ( I was close last time, lol). Let`s see.
What do you think? Waiting is too risky? Should I chill a bit?

I was exactly at the same place as you are right now. 448-473-467. Sadly, my 473 was only for two weeks and couldn't get an ITA then.

September is still far away, its hard to predict even a month from now. My advice would be to chill out but continue following the trend. If you can do something to increase your score (i.e. learn French), start preparing for it, atleast mentally. At the end, you'll only know for sure when the time comes. Best of luck

 

[chep5622]

Hey guys, first time posting something in here but following the ROH for a while. Nice to meet u all. xD
Question about my profile. I currently have 448 points. (It was a nice score 2 years ago) lol
Next September I will have 2 years of experience so that I will have 471 points. But at the end of December, it will drop to 466.
So basically I will have 471 from Sep until the end of December.
Is this a safe score to wait for an ITA? Or should I be worried?
My IELTS is L7.5 W6.5 R7 S8. I am already studying to get CLB9 ( I was close last time, lol). Let`s see.
What do you think? Waiting is too risky? Should I chill a bit?

If you try to get CLB 10 on all 4 tests you get 25 more points in language. That pushes you to 473 points and should be safe to get an ITA.

Even if you just reach CLB 9 you still get 16 more points, and in September you will be at 487, which I would say is safe even till then as scores over 480 are not that easy to reach.

I am not sure about your educational background, but if you are applying with a bachelor's degree, improving your language scores to CLB 9 or above can also give you extra points.

So I'd probably retake IELTS if I were you. It would be a safer choice.

 

[Priyanka2010]

Learn French. I took same decision exactly this time last year. I started classes in April and by end of October, I had written TEF. Got result mid-November. Enrol for french classes in March before November, you will get ITA. Not easy but I did it all the same. If I can, you can too.

How much did you score in TEF and how many points of CRS increased due to TEF? Also can you let us know about how many hours you studied French?

 

[Maik]

Hi guys ,
Am new to this thread . My current crs is 444 . My spouse has got IELTS results however didn't get trf yet . With his result I will jump to 462 . He has given 18 points ( max he can give only 20). I have done master's but we'd didn't recognize it . I have applied to ces Toronto and not sure whether they LL give master's and I have applied only now so it might take 4 months to get evaluation results. So may be around July if I get master's my score will go to 469.my IELTS score is L 8.5(clb 10),R 8(clb 10),W 7,S 7(clb 9).with W and S 7.5 I will get additional 6 points . but already with so much effort only I got 7 in both and I don't think I can write IELTS again. I want to know how do we get additional 43 points for learning french.i need your valuable suggestions guys .