My understanding is that the 165K backlog consists of:
1. 20K (people who received AOR from LVO before Nov 2011)
2. <unknown figure> (people who have been approved as sponsors after Nov 2011 transition)
3. <unknown figure> (people who applied before the Nov 2011 cut-off date)
It is important to know which bucket our application falls into. Now, if you take into account the number of visas allocated for 2012 (25K), then everyone from the first bucket would have their visas on hand, whereas only a few people from the 2nd bucket would get their visas this year The rest would get carried over to the next and we don't know what the quota would be for 2013 (might be same or less, but unlikely to go up).
We should look at the inventory data instead of guessing.
Please see the following link with inventory status and quota for each visa office:http://sponsorourparents.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48:2012-parents-and-grandparents-immigration-projected-inventory-by-visa-offices&catid=4:processiontimes&Itemid=7
For example, Sydney Visa office had 39 non-processed applicants that received by Dec. 31, 2011, which will be processed in the year of 2012. The quota of 2012 for Sydney is 10, which means the processing time at this visa office will take 4 years.
On the other hand, Vienna office had 39 non-processed applicants that received by Dec. 31, 2011, excluding Teri's file which was received in May 2012. Vienna Visa Office will approve 70 parents' sponsorship applications in 2012. Teri's file is one of the 70 target#.
The processing time depends on several factors:
- #cases in backlog prior to 2012
- Target/Quota for 2012
- Manpower of CIC officers at each visa office
- Unsatisfactory medical results vs. good medical results
- Extended period for enhanced security check for certain sensitive jobs (bank, government, military, etc)