How to read the processing timelines

[RobsLuv]

The processing timelines listed on the CIC website for outland spousal processing can be quite confusing.  A couple of years ago someone explained it to me very clearly - and I was just giving that info to someone else on these boards when I realized it might be good to put the info into a thread to help everyone.

The information here uses Buffalo visa office processing times as an example.  This is how it was explained to me:

Processing Times at Individual Visa Offices in the Americas Visa Office 30% of cases finalized in (mos): 50% of cases finalized in (mos): 70% of cases finalized in (mos): 80% of cases finalized in (mos): Buffalo 3 5 7 9 OK, so this is how it works - say Buffalo receives 100 applications in a month. 30 of those applications will be finalized in 3 months, leaving 70 aps still in process. Of those 70 remaining applications, 50% (or 35) will take 2 more months (or a total of 5 months) to finalize . . . meaning that after 5 months, 65 out of the original 100 applications (or 65%) submitted will have been finalized. That leaves 35 of the original aps still in process. Of those, 70% (or about 25) will be processed within 7 months of receipt - leaving appx 10 applications still undecided after 7 months. Of those 10, 80% (or will be finalized within 9 months of receipt. The remaining 2 will take longer than 9 months.

[Leon]

That is interesting to me because the way I would have understood it is as percentage of total cases so 30 cases in 3 months, another 20 cases or total 50 by 5 months, another 20 cases or total 70 by 7 months and another 10 or total 80 by 9 months.  So I guess they are even faster than I thought

[Bhooman]

Unfortunately this explanation is not true (eventhough I would like it to be true personally).  I spoke to CIC call center agent today and according to him (now, its debatable how much we could trust their knowledge on this subject matter), the interpretation is same as what Leon has explained.

[RobsLuv]

You know, I posted this info on another forum, too, and Leon's explanation seems to be the common consensus there also.  So I guess the way it was explained to me was wrong - actually, when you figure it with just percentages, Leon's theory makes more sense.  Obviously, 30% would be 30 aps at 3 months, 50% would be 50 aps (or 20 additional) after 5 months, 70% would be 70 aps (or another 20) at 7 months, 80% would be 80 aps (or 10 more) at 9 months - with 20 left to process after 9 months.

I obviously have too much time on my hands, so I did a little experiment.  I tracked 20 spousal cases that finalized through Buffalo in 2007 from date of AOR until PPR.  (I know, just a sampling but it was the best I could do.)  Here were the results:

                   35% (7) were finalized within 3 months (one in only 17 days!)
                   65% (13) were finalized within 5 months
                   75% (15) were finalized within 7 months
                   85% (17) were finalized within 9 months
                   15% (3) are still outstanding to date
 
I also tracked 15 spousal cases through Buffalo that were submitted in the first four months of 2008 - same method:

                   53% ( were finalized within 3 months (fastest was 25 days)
                   53% ( were still all that had been finalized by the 5 month mark
                   66% (10) were finalized within 7 months
                   33% (5) are still outstanding to date . . . 20% (3) of them over 7 months in process and appx 13% (2) over 9 months in process.

[gozer]

love to know some details on the 17-day situation.  I'm hoping mine goes that fast !

[RobsLuv]

That person actually posts on a couple of the other discussion forums I participate in.  Their situation was very straight-forward, and due to her finding a resource like this one, they were able to submit a complete and concise ap and they definitely benefitted.  Wouldn't we all love that!!