wenstumped
Hero Member
Posts: 720
Ratings: +46
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: London
NOC Code......: 3131
App. Filed.......: 7 Sept 2010
AOR Received.: 4 Jan 2011
IELTS Request: Sent
File Transfer...: Decision Made
Med's Request: 18 May 2011
Med's Done....: 31 May 2011, reached London 7 Jun 2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: 20 Sep 2011
VISA ISSUED...: 6 Oct 2011
LANDED..........: God willing 5 Jan 2012
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« Reply #5910 on: December 01, 2010, 01:49:55 pm » |
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since we are only 3% of the entire population, if an AOR is issued, there is a probability of 97% that it doesn't belong to one of us.
If two AORs are issued, the probability that both of them don't belong to someone in the forum = 97% * 97% = 94.1%
If n AORs are issued, there is a probability of (0.97)^n that all of them belong to people outside this forum, which means that in this particular case, none of us will get AORs.
Since I assumed that they issue 67 AORs per day (2 / 3%), so the probability that no one in the forum gets an AOR = (0.97)^67 = 13% approximately.
This figure is just a very rough estimation based on the limited data available to us and contingent on the soundness of the assumptions used.
Whoa! I think I was just thrown back into math class  . Good stuff asaif! |
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The freethinking of one age is the common sense of the next- Matthew Arnold
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Bindu
Hero Member
Posts: 333
Ratings: +20
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: New Delhi
NOC Code......: 3152
Pre-Assessed..: Yes
App. Filed.......: 05-08-2010
AOR Received.: By God's Grace on 01-12-2010
File Transfer...: 2nd AOR by GOD's Grace on 21-Feb-2011
Med's Request: Recieved by Allmighty GOD Jesus Christ's grace on 08-03-2011
Med's Done....: Completed the Med by God's Grace on 14-03-2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: Passport and RPRF sent by God's Grace on 17-03-2011
VISA ISSUED...: Status changed to Decision Made on 25th June 2011 , Visa Issued by God's Grace on July 15th 2011
LANDED..........: Landed by God's Grace in Toronto on 11th Aug 2011
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« Reply #5911 on: December 01, 2010, 02:13:01 pm » |
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The Lord is my Shephered I shall not want
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aaycee
Hero Member
Posts: 534
Ratings: +24
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: New Delhi
NOC Code......: 3113
App. Filed.......: 13-08-2010
Doc's Request.: Document Submitted: 17-03-11
AOR Received.: 2nd AOR: 18-2-2011
IELTS Request: 7.5
Med's Request: 25-02-11
Med's Done....: 9-03-11
Interview........: waived
Passport Req..: 25-02-11
VISA ISSUED...: 22-7-11
LANDED..........: 4th October 2011 Winnipeg 
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« Reply #5912 on: December 01, 2010, 02:15:20 pm » |
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HEY BINDU..CONGRATS!!!!!!!!! HOPING THE SAME FOR ALL OF US HERE...... |
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Jai Santoshi Maa
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wenstumped
Hero Member
Posts: 720
Ratings: +46
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: London
NOC Code......: 3131
App. Filed.......: 7 Sept 2010
AOR Received.: 4 Jan 2011
IELTS Request: Sent
File Transfer...: Decision Made
Med's Request: 18 May 2011
Med's Done....: 31 May 2011, reached London 7 Jun 2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: 20 Sep 2011
VISA ISSUED...: 6 Oct 2011
LANDED..........: God willing 5 Jan 2012
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« Reply #5913 on: December 01, 2010, 02:15:57 pm » |
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The freethinking of one age is the common sense of the next- Matthew Arnold
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Cam1234
Guest
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« Reply #5914 on: December 01, 2010, 02:18:37 pm » |
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since we are only 3% of the entire population, if an AOR is issued, there is a probability of 97% that it doesn't belong to one of us.
If two AORs are issued, the probability that both of them don't belong to someone in the forum = 97% * 97% = 94.1%
If n AORs are issued, there is a probability of (0.97)^n that all of them belong to people outside this forum, which means that in this particular case, none of us will get AORs.
Since I assumed that they issue 67 AORs per day (2 / 3%), so the probability that no one in the forum gets an AOR = (0.97)^67 = 13% approximately.
This figure is just a very rough estimation based on the limited data available to us and contingent on the soundness of the assumptions used.
Thank you asiaf, for taking the time and giving me this clear explanation I see that we are both in the same NOC, hope we successfully get our visas and get a chance to meet in person over in Canada. Do you know where you will be landing, I am hoping for the Toronto area. Cam |
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Bindu
Hero Member
Posts: 333
Ratings: +20
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: New Delhi
NOC Code......: 3152
Pre-Assessed..: Yes
App. Filed.......: 05-08-2010
AOR Received.: By God's Grace on 01-12-2010
File Transfer...: 2nd AOR by GOD's Grace on 21-Feb-2011
Med's Request: Recieved by Allmighty GOD Jesus Christ's grace on 08-03-2011
Med's Done....: Completed the Med by God's Grace on 14-03-2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: Passport and RPRF sent by God's Grace on 17-03-2011
VISA ISSUED...: Status changed to Decision Made on 25th June 2011 , Visa Issued by God's Grace on July 15th 2011
LANDED..........: Landed by God's Grace in Toronto on 11th Aug 2011
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« Reply #5916 on: December 01, 2010, 02:20:35 pm » |
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Thanks a lot Wenstumped, Wish every one get the PER's soon... God Bless you Regards Bindu |
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The Lord is my Shephered I shall not want
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Bindu
Hero Member
Posts: 333
Ratings: +20
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: New Delhi
NOC Code......: 3152
Pre-Assessed..: Yes
App. Filed.......: 05-08-2010
AOR Received.: By God's Grace on 01-12-2010
File Transfer...: 2nd AOR by GOD's Grace on 21-Feb-2011
Med's Request: Recieved by Allmighty GOD Jesus Christ's grace on 08-03-2011
Med's Done....: Completed the Med by God's Grace on 14-03-2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: Passport and RPRF sent by God's Grace on 17-03-2011
VISA ISSUED...: Status changed to Decision Made on 25th June 2011 , Visa Issued by God's Grace on July 15th 2011
LANDED..........: Landed by God's Grace in Toronto on 11th Aug 2011
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« Reply #5917 on: December 01, 2010, 02:23:32 pm » |
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Hi Cam, Your words turned to be true.... Thanks a lot Regards Bindu |
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The Lord is my Shephered I shall not want
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Bindu
Hero Member
Posts: 333
Ratings: +20
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: New Delhi
NOC Code......: 3152
Pre-Assessed..: Yes
App. Filed.......: 05-08-2010
AOR Received.: By God's Grace on 01-12-2010
File Transfer...: 2nd AOR by GOD's Grace on 21-Feb-2011
Med's Request: Recieved by Allmighty GOD Jesus Christ's grace on 08-03-2011
Med's Done....: Completed the Med by God's Grace on 14-03-2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: Passport and RPRF sent by God's Grace on 17-03-2011
VISA ISSUED...: Status changed to Decision Made on 25th June 2011 , Visa Issued by God's Grace on July 15th 2011
LANDED..........: Landed by God's Grace in Toronto on 11th Aug 2011
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« Reply #5918 on: December 01, 2010, 02:26:09 pm » |
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Thanks a Lot Aaycee, sincerly hope that all of us get the PER's before XMAS, and next XMAS we can all celebrate together in Canada by God's grace Regards Bindu HEY BINDU..CONGRATS!!!!!!!!!
HOPING THE SAME FOR ALL OF US HERE......
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The Lord is my Shephered I shall not want
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Amro Elsayed
Hero Member
Posts: 663
Ratings: +41
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: London
NOC Code......: 3131
App. Filed.......: 10-09-2010
Doc's Request.: 10-09-2010
AOR Received.: 06-01-2011
IELTS Request: Sent with the app.
File Transfer...: 10-3-2011
Med's Request: 17-5-2011
Interview........: Waived
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« Reply #5919 on: December 01, 2010, 02:36:33 pm » |
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Congratulation my friend so u save the day I was going to lose hope but at last one came across congratulation again
Amo
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johnyusa
Star Member
Posts: 121
Ratings: +3
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« Reply #5920 on: December 01, 2010, 02:43:29 pm » |
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I already congratulated you yesterday for your verbal AOR and now you have the official one. May be your call helped a lot . Anyway, congrats again and good luck for the future. |
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Cappuccino
VIP Member
Posts: 4414
Ratings: +389
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: London
NOC Code......: 3131
App. Filed.......: 30-Aug-2010
AOR Received.: 15-Dec-2010
IELTS Request: Sent with app - 8.5 band score
Med's Request: 13-Apr-2011
Med's Done....: 19-Apr-2011
Passport Req..: 28-June-2011
VISA ISSUED...: 21-July-2011
LANDED..........: 27-Aug-2011 ECAS Recd By VO.....: 11-Feb-2011 In Process.......: 15-Mar-2011 Decision Made.: 25-Jun-2011
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« Reply #5921 on: December 01, 2010, 02:45:18 pm » |
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Many congrats! Glad someone got an AOR today! Wayne. |
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My Canada blog = http://get2canada.wordpress.comPlease note much of the information on the process relates to 2010/2011 process. A new process is coming out for FSWP in May 2013. |
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avi_15
Hero Member
Posts: 691
Ratings: +30
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: Buffalo
NOC Code......: 1122
App. Filed.......: 30-Aug-2010
Doc's Request.: Sent with the App
AOR Received.: 16-Dec-2010
IELTS Request: Sent
File Transfer...: 16-Dec-2010
Med's Request: 25-July-2011 reached 02-Aug-2011
Med's Done....: 30-Aug-2011 reached 8-Sep-2011
Interview........: Waived
Passport Req..: 03-Nov-2011 reached 7-Nov-2011
VISA ISSUED...: 18-Nov-2011 reached 25-Nov-2011
LANDED..........: 03-Feb-2012
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« Reply #5922 on: December 01, 2010, 02:45:49 pm » |
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congrats bindu... so i think all those who have their file numbers starting with B****** from the call center .. its an unofficial AOR guys/gals
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engy
Hero Member
Posts: 425
Ratings: +14
Category........: FSW1
Visa Office......: cairo
NOC Code......: 3131
App. Filed.......: 27 Aug 2010
AOR Received.: 15 Dec 2010 ---2AOR 21 FEB 2011
IELTS Request: sent with app
File Transfer...: 10 Feb 2011
Med's Request: 2 May 2011
Med's Done....: 12 May 2011
Interview........: waived
Passport Req..: 27 July 2011
VISA ISSUED...: 8 August 2011
LANDED..........: 24 march 2012
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« Reply #5923 on: December 01, 2010, 02:56:23 pm » |
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congratuation Bindu your AOR gives me sme hope i sent an email to cic yesterday and after 17 hours i got their reply as follows Good Morning. File # B05------- Your application has been received by our office, and is currently awaiting review by an officer. D.A. hope that i have half the luck of bindu and get my AOR quickly by God's grace best wishes for all members of our forum |
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Cam1234
Guest
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« Reply #5924 on: December 01, 2010, 03:01:44 pm » |
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Many congrats! Glad someone got an AOR today! Wayne. Hi Wayne, take a look at the spreadsheet... for July and early Aug only two people post regularly on this board... Temasek and Coffee... wondering if others in that period have received their AORs and have not alerted the board... In any case, here is to AORs for Temasek and Coffee!!! You guys should be next, hope you receive them shortly Cam |
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Immigration Forum
